Now that the New York Yankees have acquired Joey Gallo, the left-handed power hitter they've been trying to get into their lineup for so long, one has to assume they'll be looking to lock him up to a long-term contract as early as this offseason.
And it's not inconceivable to envision the Yankees re-signing Anthony Rizzo as well, who they also acquired at the trade deadline from the Chicago Cubs. Rizzo, 31, is a free agent after this season and is off to a good start in his very young Yankee career.
On the right side of the plate, of course, remains Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. The Yankees now feature unbelievable power in their lineup, but how likely is it that they can keep it?
Let's assume Gallo is signed to a long-term deal – it's going to be a big one. Gallo, 27, is a two-time All-Star with a 122 wRC+ over the past three seasons with an elite ability to get on base to go along with his elite power. The Yankees will certainly live with the strikeouts, which are bountiful, but there really isn't a player in baseball quite like Gallo. And if he were to play his home games at Yankee Stadium, it wouldn't be hard to imagine 30 home runs and 100 RBIs on a yearly basis.
Stanton is currently signed through 2027 (with a 2028 team option), making a cool $29 million this year and next, $32 million from 2023-2025, $29 million in 2026, and $25 million in 2027. The Marlins are helping to pay some of that contract on the backend, but the 31-year-old outfielder is going to be in New York for a long time.
Which brings us to Aaron Judge and our question: Is he… expendable?
It seems almost insane to consider it, since Judge is essentially the face of the Yankees at this point. He had that incredible rookie season in 2017, hitting a then-record 52 home runs with a .284/.422/.627 slash line. Judge is a three-time All-Star and has averaged a 149 wRC+ over the past five years.
And even with his high strikeout totals, Aaron Judge is consistently in the elite percentiles in the Majors when it comes to walk rate, barrel percentage, exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, wOBA, and hard-hit rate.
But even after obviously taking all of that into account, the Yankees have to be mindful of their current roster construction and how it will take shape in the future as the team looks to contend with a payroll they are somehow, someway, trying to keep as close to the competitive balance tax threshold as possible.
Judge is making a little over $10 million this season and is arbitration-eligible in 2022, certainly due for a nice pay raise. He will be a free agent in 2023 when he is 31 years old. Judging by the contracts being doled out in recent years for the premier free agents, it would be crazy to think Judge couldn't command a $30 million a year deal. Assuming the Yankees at least have an interest in signing Gallo – who will command a $25-$30 million a year deal on his own – what will their appetite be for Judge?
If the Yankees managed to sign both Judge and Gallo to long-term deals, and then taking into account the current Gerrit Cole contract that pays $36 million a year until 2028, New York would have well over $120 million tied up in four players, Stanton included. Normally, this wouldn't be a problem at all for the Yankees we all know, but these new, somewhat fiscally responsible Yankees? It might make them pause.
Oh, by the way, Luis Severino will be a free agent in 2024, provided the team picks up his $15 million team option in 2023.
These aren't insurmountable payroll issues by any means, and the Yankees will of course leap right into that luxury tax if push came to shove, but assuming Gallo is on this team long-term, along with Stanton and maybe even Rizzo… what should the Yankees realistically do with Judge?
The other issue with Judge is his injury history. Since that incredible rookie season in which he had 678 plate appearances, Judge hasn't tallied 500 PAs in a season. In addition to testing positive for COVID-19, Judge has quite the injury resume, which includes oblique strains, shoulder surgery, a wrist fracture, a cracked rib, a collapsed lung, calf strains and general lower body soreness.
His playing time is already being carefully managed, so can the Yankees really trust he'll stay healthy two, three, four years from now?
There have been plenty of Aaron Judge trade scenarios thrown out there, but nothing concrete in the way of actual rumors, though it's becoming increasingly obvious Judge might just get squeezed off the roster. Despite having Cole and Severino, the Yankees are still in desperate need of help in the starting rotation. Trading Judge would net a considerable haul, not just in major-league talent, but in prospects to help pad the farm system.
A trade makes sense for a number of reasons, from relieving an ever-expanding payroll to potentially flipping Judge for young, controllable pitching. It would have seemed unthinkable in 2017 that we'd be talking about an Aaron Judge trade in 2021, but the recent acquisition of Joey Gallo – and possibly Anthony Rizzo – might have pushed the Yankees closer to this move than ever before.
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