Last year the Vanderbilt Commodores, led by head coach Clark Lea, won five games for the first time since 2018. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Vanderbilt football over/under win total prediction and pick.

The line last year was set at 2.5 wins, and Vanderbilt hit the over by the end of September. They took care of Hawaii, Elon, and Northern Illinois in the non-conference schedule to jump out to a 3-1 start. The SEC schedule then brought them five straight losses, but wins over Kentucky and Florida gave them two more wins before the end of the season. This year, Vandy has a manageable non-conference schedule, but still plays in the SEC. They will play Ole Miss and Auburn out of the west and still will play Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee out of their division.

The Commodores also bring back their quarterback from last year. Their star recruit from the 2022 cycle was AJ Swann. Swann returns for his second season at Vanderbilt, behind an improved offensive line, and with a defense that should expect to improve as well. The defense added four quality transfers in the offseason, including an edge rusher, linebacker, and corner. They did lose their top running back from last year, but they bring back their top two receivers and will be looking to make a step towards getting to a bowl game this year.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Vanderbilt Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 3.5 wins: -170

Under 3.5 wins: +138

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Why Vanderbilt Can Win 3.5 Games 

The first key for Vanderbilt football is the returning production. This team won five games last year, and according to Bill Connelly, return 73% of their offensive production. That metric ranks them 38th in the nation. Overall, they return 65% of their production from last year, which is good for 58th in the nation. They bring back their quarterback, many of their offensive linemen, and their top two wide receivers.  The defense lost some guys who played a lot of snaps, but they bring back De'Rickey Wright who led the team in interceptions. The ‘Dores bring back their top two sack guys as well, and Jaylen Mahoney, who was second in tackles for a loss last year.

The returning production is also positive in comparison to the schedule they are facing. The first game of the year is August 26th at home against Hawaii. This is a Hawaii squad that Vandy beat last year and is 122nd in returning production. They then face Alabama A&M the next week and should be starting 2-0. The last two non-conference games are both on the road against Wake Forest, who no longer has Sam Howell, and UNLV led by Barry Odom. If they can get one win in those two games, they should be able to get to 3.5 wins.

Their SEC schedule lines up well for that. Their most winnable games are Kentucky and Missouri. Both of those are at home. Missouri brings back a lot of players from 2022, including a strong defensive unit. Still, they have not figured out the quarterback situation. Brady Cook is back for Missouri as is Sam Horn, plus they added Jake Garcia to the mix. Still, this game is early enough in the year, that Missouri may not have it figured out yet. They play four of the six lowest expected win total teams in the SEC, so getting one in the conference is more than doable for Vanderbilt and the pick should reflect that.

Why Vanderbilt Can Not Win 3.5 Games

For Vanderbilt football to miss winning 3.5 games, one of two scenarios has to play out. Scenario number one is the easier of the two. Vanderbilt beats Hawaii and Alabama A&M, but lose to both UNLV and Wake Forest. That means they would need two SEC wins to get there. They are in Florida, which should be better than next year. Vanderbilt will face Georgia at home, which will be a loss. They also have to face Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Tennessee all on the road. Even if Vandy is better than last year, being on the road could lead to three losses. That leaves only Auburn, Kentucky, and Missouri as potential wins. Auburn will be better under Hugh Freeze, and Missouri is bringing back a great defense. Therefore, Vanderbilt gets just one win in the SEC, and after only two in non-conference play, they do not reach 3.5 wins.

The second scenario is a little disrespectful to Clark Lea, but not to Vanderbilt's historical performance. This would be Vanderbilt losing to either Wake Forest or UNLV, and going without a conference win. They did just that in 2020 and 2021. Until their upset of Kentucky, Vanderbilt had lost 26 straight SEC games. Kentucky lost Will Levis, but they have Vanderbilt's top running back from last year.  They brought in transfer Devin Leary and will have a productive offense. The defense should be solid as well again. Missouri is going to be a much-improved team as they are ninth in returning production. Auburn has improved on the defensive line, and teams are not sleeping on Vanderbilt the way Florida was when they were double-digit favorites and lost. Vanderbilt can lose all of their SEC games, meaning they fall short of 3.5 wins.

Final Vanderbilt Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

This Vanderbilt squad is now in its third season under Clark Lea and they have consistently improved. This would be a two-loss regression for Vanderbilt not to hit the over. While it is Vanderbilt football and it is possible, it is highly unlikely. Hawaii was awful last year and has no signs it has gotten better. Alabama A&M should be a win as well. Then there is Wake Forest. Wake is 112th in returning production, and 11th on the offensive side of the ball. They lost a ton in the offseason and that is not a program that has tons of talent just waiting in the wings. UNLV is 42nd in returning production, but that should not be of much excitement as they finished 101st in SP+ last year. Looking at the Kentucky bowl game without Levis, the offense could not do anything at all. Leary will be good, but he is not as good as Levis. Vanderbilt hits the over before October and wins four of their first five games. The over is the pick for Vanderbilt. They finish the season with five wins again and will be close to bowl eligibility.

Final Vanderbilt Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 3.5 Wins (-170)