Early Astros concerns that could signal end to reign of dominance

It's been a long time coming, but the message 14 American League teams have been hoping would arrive for years could be coming through the wires at any minute: “Houston, we might finally have a problem.” After a seven-year reign of dominance at the top of the AL, the Houston Astros are off to a dreadful start to the 2024 season. And though we've seen slow starts from plenty of championship-caliber teams in the past, this time feels a bit different — and a lot more concerning — for these Astros.​

It isn't just that Houston is 4-10, or that they were blown out of the building at Kauffman Stadium by the red-hot Royals this week. The Astros are hurting for pitching, they no longer have the psychological edge in their own division, and depending on which way this season breaks, the championship core they've carefully built through the years could start to slowly wither away.

The vaunted Astros rotation has never been so thin

As great as Houston's lineup has been this past decade, they could have never built their dynasty without the game's most reliable starting rotation. The names have changed through the years, but the talent has always been stockpiled. But this year, the rotation was already more vulnerable than in years past, and then the injury bug bit.

Justin Verlander and Jose Urquidy began the year on the injured list, forcing the Astros to put both J.P. France and Ronel Blanco, who they likely preferred to use as swingmen, in the regular rotation. To their utter surprise, Blanco has turned out to be the best starter in all of baseball two outings in. But that's about the only thing that's gone right.

Framber Valdez, the veteran anchor of the staff, struggled with command early on and now has landed on the IL with elbow troubles, return date unknown. Cristian Javier has been fantastic, but the Astros have managed to lose two of his three starts. And Hunter Brown, who was supposed to take a big step forward in year two, has been lit up like a Christmas tree.

These aren't your run-of-the-mill issues a team habitually deals with during the course of a season. The starting rotation is close to coming apart at the seams and until Verlander or Valdez is fully healthy and performing up to their usual standard, it will be hard to trust that any of the less proven names behind them are ready to step up and be aces.

The Astros' mental edge in the AL West is gone

An essential part to any sports dynasty is ownership over the teams you play most frequently. We saw the New England Patriots dominate the AFC East for almost 20 years, while no one in the West, nor even LeBron James, could hang with the Golden State Warriors when they were at their peak. And for the past seven years, the Astros absolutely bullied the AL West. That is, until the Texas Rangers showed up.

We all know the story by now. There were multiple spats during the 2023 regular season. There was Alex Bregman's infamous “I guess we'll never know” speech in the locker room after the Astros clinched the division on the season's last day. Then there was the epic seven-game ALCS headlined by Adolis García's dominance and Bryan Abreu's suspension saga. And it all came full circle when the Rangers won their first World Series and Corey Seager threw Bregman's words right back at him.

Now that 2024 has begun and the Rangers have jumped out to the early lead in the AL West, it's clear that there's no longer an aura about the Astros when they compete against their divisional opponents.

Texas showed it's possible to stand toe-to-toe with these Astros last year and perhaps the Mariners will soon take some swings at them too. The end result is the Astros having to sweat a lot more from day one to reclaim their spot in the ALCS, which gives them every opportunity to collapse at some point along the way.

Last dance for the current roster?

Nobody can doubt, at this point, that the Astros are willing to spend the money it takes to keep putting a winning product on the field. At some point, though, the treasure chest has to run out of gold.

The Astros have run their payroll all the way up to third in Major League Baseball, spending top dollar this past offseason to sign Josh Hader and extend Jose Altuve. They were wise to lock up Yordan Alvarez through 2028, but the Astros still have three of their biggest names coming up for extensions in the next two years and it remains to be seen how many of them owner Jim Crane will deem feasible to keep around.

Alex Bregman hits free agency at the end of this year, with Kyle Tucker and Valdez looming the year after that. All three are poised to command nine-figure contracts and with Houston already over the luxury tax threshold for 2024, they risk being repeat offenders by the time the latter two are up for bidding.

So although fans of every team hope their ownership is willing to spend whatever it takes to keep the band together, it's a big ask of Crane to shell out the vast fortunes it would require to keep all three in place. If it becomes Sophie's choice of sorts, how will Houston go about choosing who to keep around?

The answer could make all the difference as to whether we're still asking when the Astros will fall off their pedestal in a year or two, or if we've already seen it happen.