UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg will be live from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil as we're set to bring you all our betting predictions and picks for the stacked fight card. This next bout takes place in the Lightweight (155) Division as country-favorite Elves Brener of Sao Paulo takes on Kyrgyzstan's Myktybek Orolbai. Check out our UFC odds series for our Brener-Orolbai prediction and pick.

Elves Brener (16-3) has gone a perfect 3-0 in his UFC fights since debuting early-2023. He's been very active in getting back into the octagon and now has back-to-back knockout victories heading into this fight. This will be his toughest opponent to-date as he looks to stay unbeaten in the extremely deep division. Brener stands 5'10” with a 72.5-inch reach.

Myktybek Orolbai (12-1-1) is 1-0 in the UFC following an impressive submission win over Uros Medic in his debut fight. A 3-0 prospect from LFA, the fighter from Kyrgyzstan has been thrown into the fire from his first bout and now he'll look to stop the momentum of a worthy opponent. Orolbai stands 5'10” with a 74-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 301 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC 301 Odds: Elves Brener-Myktybek Orolbai Odds

Elves Brener: +210

Myktybek Orolbai: -250

Over 2.5 rounds: -135

Under 2.5 rounds: +105

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Why Elves Brener Will Win

Elves Brener has seen his wild fighting style translate well to the UFC and after a close-call split decision in his debut, he responded with two-straight knockouts over other dangerous prospects. He's never willing to back down from a brawl and he's proven his serious knockout power when landing clean. His fights often walk a tightrope of chaos and he's prone to taking his fair share of punishment in the process. Still, against a dominant grappler like Orolbai, his greatest shot at success will be to make this a war.

Elves Brener will undoubtedly have to defend the takedowns during this fight and he does so at an 85% clip, much higher than any of Orolbai's previous opponents. On the feet, Brener is the much quicker striker and he's lucky to not be giving up much size to his opponent. If Brener can stuff just the first few takedowns and land damaging shots in the striking exchanges, he could have a chance to win this fight.

Why Myktybek Orolbai Will Win

Myktybek Orolbai made his debut on short-notice against a now-ranked fighter in Uros Medic. The win aged gracefully given Medic's recent success and now Orolbai has a chance to immediately establish himself as a name to watch at Lightweight. He's an extremely well-balanced technician with a mean-streak of his own. He's able to put opponents out on the feet, often following up with ground strikes to finish the fight. He's also a very skilled wrestler and has as many as five submission wins to his six KO/TKO wins. He's ultra-aggressive in walking opponents down and if he sees someone's back foot hit the fence, he's likely to shoot for a takedown.

While Orolbai is quick to throw wild strikes from all angles, he does a great job of remaining defensively sound and not taking too much damage. He's very slick with the way he counters punches and is constantly working on moving his head off the center line. He'll need to stay active on the feet here as Brener may be throwing hard overhands and hooks, so look for Orolbai to circle away and throw high kicks as counters.

Final Elves Brener-Myktybek Orolbai Prediction & Pick

This is going to be a treat early on Prelims as both fighters are willing to strike their way to an exciting finish. Coming in as the underdog, Elves Brener is unbeaten in his three UFC appearances and is willing to meet fire with fire in finding a knockout on the feet. Myktybek Orolbai may be just as polished of a striker, if not more, so we should see close exchanges between the two when striking at range.

Elves Brener is a seasoned BJJ black belt and has 11 wins by submission while never getting caught in one himself. While Orolbai is a very skilled grappler, he'll likely want to avoid the submission threats coming back from Brener.

Mytybek Orolobai's clearest path to victory will be his striking and ability to vary his attacks. It's doubtful that he'll initiate the grappling himself, so expect him to try and counter Brener when he comes in.

Both fighters will have their moments in this fight and I expect Elves Brener to put some pressure on Orolbai from the opening horn. However, I think the balanced defense from Myktybek Orolbai will be the difference as he ultimately gets the win.

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Final Elves Brener-Myktybek Orolbai Prediction & Pick: Myktybek Orolbai (-250)