The Prelims at UFC Atlantic City continue to roll as we're set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for our next bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. New Jersey's own Julio Arce will take on Brazil's Herbert Burns. Check out our UFC odds series for our Arce-Burns prediction and pick.
Julio Arce (18-6) has gone 5-4 during his UFC career since 2018. He's alternated wins and losses over his last eight fights with three finishes during that stretch. He's coming into this one off a unanimous decision loss to Montel Jackson, so he's on pace to bounce back with a win in this time around. Arce stands 5'7″ with a 70-inch reach.
Herbert Burns (11-4) has gone 2-2 since joining the UFC roster in 2020. After two impressive first-round finishes to start his stint with the promotion, he's been finished during his last two contests and has fought only once over the last three years. He'll be looking to bounce back as a heavy underdog in this fight. Burns stands 5'9″ with a 73.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Atlantic City Odds: Julio Arce-Herbert Burns Odds
Julio Arce: -400
Herbert Burns: +300
Over 1.5 rounds: -125
Under 1.5 rounds: -105
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Why Julio Arce Will Win
Julio Arce comes into this fight having faced the much better competition opposite his opponent in Herbert Burns. While he's been up-and-down over the last eight fights, Arce has managed to avoid back-to-back losses since 2018. He was the +170 underdog against Montel Jackson in his last fight and reasonably lost on the scorecards. As a massive favorite in this fight, you'd have to imagine this matchup is tailor made for Arce's skill set.
Julio Arce is a very active striker at over four thrown per minute, so he should have a significant advantage with his hand speed over a grappler like Burns. While Burns is likely to shoot for multiple takedowns throughout this fight, Julio Arce boasts a 95% takedown defense rate and should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. Look for him to push the pace as he tries to test the will of Herbert Burns.
Why Herbert Burns Will Win
Herbert Burns made a splash upon his entrance to the UFC with two first-round finishes over veterans like Nate Landwehr and Evan Dunham, immediately making him a highly-touted prospect along with his brother Gilbert Burns. However, he's been shaky over his last two fights and after getting finished by Daniel Pineda, missing weight, and gassing-out against Bill Algeo, he'll have a lot to prove as the heavy underdog during this appearance.
Herbert Burns is a world-class jiu jitsu practitioner and he'll always have the submission in his back pocket. However, he often resorts to fighting off of his back and as fighters become aware of his tactics, they exploit him even more in the striking game. Herbert Burns will have to improve his striking to set up his jiu jitsu and put Arce on his back if he wants to win. He'd be much better off advancing from the top and searching for submissions while mixing in some ground-and-pound.
Final Julio Arce-Herbert Burns Prediction & Pick
It'll be interesting to see how both of these fighters look on the scales due to their previous issues with missing weight. Herbert Burns has also had a number of cancelled fights leading up to this one, so our hope is that both fighters are healthy and ready to go ahead of this one. Julio Arce has certainly been the more active fighter over the last few years and he's been great at avoiding back-to-back losses.
Herbert Burns has the biggest strength in this fight with his jiu-jitsu game, but lately it's been hard for him to advance into those positions. Julio Arce's 95% takedown defense will be a tough task to work around, but Burns can be in business if he finds just one and starts advancing toward a mounted position.
Both of these fighters have finishing capabilities, but their last few performances have been lackluster in terms of how aggressive they've come out. I expect both guys to be very measured during the first round as they look to execute their game plans in the second.
For our prediction, we're going to have to side with Julio Arce to get the win. Herbert Burns has all the physical tools and skills to be successful in this division, but ultimately his inactivity over the last few years will hurt his chances here. Arce is in a big bounce-back spot, but his betting line doesn't carry much value. Instead, let's look towards the over as both fighters play it safe in the first round.
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Final Julio Arce-Herbert Burns Prediction & Pick: Julio Arce (-400); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-125)
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