The UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Main Card from Rio de Janeiro is finally here and we'll be making a prediction and pick for this opening bout, taking place in the Middleweight (185) Division. Ranked adversaries will do battle as No. 13 Paul Craig of Scotland takes on No. 14 Caio Borralho of the home Brazil. Check out our UFC odds series for our Craig-Borralho prediction and pick.

Paul Craig (17-7-1) has gone 9-7-1 during his tenure in the UFC dating back to 2016. After a vicious four-fight winning streak that saw him notch four finishes, Craig is 1-3 in his last four following losses to top-10 competition. He'll face another worthy grappler who's looking to knock him off his ranking as the big betting underdog. Craig stands 6'3″ with a 76-inch reach.

Caio Borralho (15-1) has gone a perfect 5-0 since joining the UFC in 2022. Part of the Fighting Nerds camp out of Brazil, he's won four of his fights by unanimous decision and most recently did so against Abus Magomedov. He'll be facing his toughest opponent to-date looking to breaking into the top-10. Borralho stands 5'10” with a 75-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 301 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC 301 Odds: Paul Craig-Caio Borralho Odds

Paul Craig: +425

Caio Borralho: -600

Over 1.5 rounds: -205

Under 1.5 rounds: +165

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Why Paul Craig Will Win

Paul Craig is easily the best submission specialist in the Middleweight Division when fighting off his back. From knocking Jamahal Hill out from his closed guard to submitting Nikita Krylov in the opening round, going to the ground with Paul Craig is never a smart move. However, over his last four fights, opponents have grown wary to his skillset and will often disengage once the fight hits the mat. Paul Craig isn't much of a striker and he's struggled to keep up against his last few opponents. Borralho is willing to keep this fight standing, so Craig may have to show some striking improvements during this camp.

One thing Paul Craig will have going is his size and strength advantage. His long legs will make a difference when chasing submissions from the bottom and he should have the more powerful hands if he's able to land clean. We haven't really seen Caio Borralho get controlled too much on the ground, so Paul Craig would really benefit from pushing his ground-and-pound efforts and trying to damage Borralho slowly from there. Still, you can never count Paul Craig out of a fight if he's still up and conscious.

Why Caio Borralho Will Win

Caio Borralho has been very impressive through his first five UFC fights and his evolution continues to grow with passing camp. His fight team is very tight-knit and they have a room full of great training partners who push each other. The support will be there in full-force for Borralho and after a few decision victories, he'll be all the more motivated to get the finish in front of his home country of Brazil. The size difference shouldn't deter Borralho here, but he'll constantly have to work around the clinch and takedowns of Paul Craig. Expect Borralho to fight conservatively as he allows Craig to make the first few mistakes.

Caio Borralho's last two performances have been particularly impressive as he flipped the tables on Michal Oleksiejczuk with a submission from the back, along with a great striking performance against Abus Magomedov. He proved himself against two dangerous strikers and keeps evolving and adapting with each passing fight, so look for Borralho to try and outdo himself once again in this one.

Final Paul Craig-Caio Borralho Prediction & Pick

This will be a great fight to open up the UFC 301 Main Card and we'll be witnessing two of the Middleweight Division's best submission artists in these two on Saturday. Paul Craig is the massive underdog and no stranger to this moment. While opponents have been figuring out his game as of late, expect him to be equally dangerous as he poses a unique size challenge for Borralho.

Still, Caio Borralho is much better in terms of his striking and he'll be able to keep this fight at a safe distance while Craig tries to land the takedown. Expect the scrambles and jiu jitsu transitions to be frantic on the ground, but it wouldn't surprise me if both men respected each other's grappling too much and kept this one on the feet.

For pure matchup reasons, we have to favor Caio Borralho and his ability to mix his martial arts in an effective way. Paul Craig has been down at some point in the majority of his UFC fights and I don't expect Borralho to give him much room throughout this one. Borralho will keep coming with striking and leg kicks, so expect Craig to take some desperation shots if he gets hurt. It's never a good idea to count him out, but we'll have to ride the favorite to win this one.

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Final Paul Craig-Caio Borralho Prediction & Pick: Caio Borralho (-600); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-205)