The Oklahoma City Thunder have arrived ahead of schedule and made a name for themselves this season. Mark Daigneault's squad earned the top overall seed in the Western Conference and the team is set to contend for a championship with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way through the NBA playoffs.
SGA has emerged as a top-10 player in the league, and the Thunder have several talented young players who will only get better. However, despite jumping out to a 1-0 lead in Round 1 vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, 2024 is not going to be their year. Let’s take a closer look at Oklahoma City’s fatal flaw that will doom them in this year’s postseason tournament.
The NBA playoffs bring new challenges
The playoffs are a different style of basketball. During the regular season, teams typically face a different opponent every night. There are exceptions, but these are exceedingly rare. Because of the nature of the regular season where a team won't see a particular opponent for several weeks if not longer, it is rare for teams to target opponent strengths.
The playoffs are different, though. In the postseason, where you can play the same team seven games in a row, coaches will study film and attempt to gain a tactical advantage by getting their opponent off balance. They’ll identify individual players and attack their weaknesses or find ways to avoid their strengths.
Most young players who haven't experienced the postseason aren't used to being game-planned against directly. The postseason requires adaptability and players must understand how to make changes on the fly and have counters for what their opponents are trying to do.
Young players who thrive on athleticism and energy are particularly susceptible to opposition game planning because they haven't been in the league long enough to develop a variety of counter moves. The Thunder are still learning how to play together, and they won't go all the way to the Finals in their first taste of postseason play. Oklahoma City's roster is full of youth and talent, but their inexperience will cause problems in the 2024 postseason.
Oklahoma City’s fatal flaw
The fatal flaw for the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2024 playoffs will be their lack of experience in postseason play. the Thunder are an extremely young team.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is their superstar and one of their veteran leaders at just 25 years old. However, SGA doesn't have a track record of postseason success like veterans typically do. He is expected to be the leader of this team, and he hasn't experienced success in the playoffs so he will be learning as he goes. This will make it nearly impossible for Gilgeous-Alexander to serve as a mentor for the younger players on the Thunder roster.
This brings us to the next point. Oklahoma City’s roster is littered with incredibly young players. This is a testament to how good the team is. The Thunder weren't supposed to be anywhere near this good this early. This was supposed to be a transition year, as the young players matured and adjusted to playing at the NBA level.
The team's young stars are still learning to play with each other and figuring out how to play as a team. An important aspect of playing winning postseason basketball is working together as a unit and figuring out how to play as a team and maximize the team's overall ceiling. It can be a lengthy and complicated process for each player to learn every other player’s strengths and weaknesses.
The work still isn't done at that point, though. Each player needs to know how their strengths can cover up their teammates’ weaknesses, while also understanding how their teammates' strengths will cover their own weaknesses. When a team figures that out, they are able to play together at the highest level and the result is often a beautiful form of basketball.
The best teams in league history figured out how to play together. Think of the Spurs teams of the 2000s and early 2010s, the Lakers teams of the late 2010s, and the Miami Heat teams of the “Heatles” era. These teams had superstars, but that isn't what separated them. They won because of the role players doing their part.
The Warriors wouldn't have been the Warriors without Andre Iguodala’s defense, Shaun Livingston's steady hand off the bench, or Draymond Green's defense and playmaking. The Heat wouldn't have won without guys like Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem, and Ray Allen.
The young Thunder players will have a learning curve
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needs to prove that he is a superstar who can play at his best when the lights are the brightest. Even if he does that, though, it won't be enough to make Oklahoma City the favorite to come out of the Western Conference.
SGA proving he can play at a superstar level when the chips are down is one component of the Thunder’s success, but they'll need something else. The other young players on the team will need to learn their roles and do their part. this is what made the aforementioned teams so great, and Oklahoma City will need to gain more experience before they can reach that point.
Jalen Williams is having a career year, but this will be his first postseason test. he'll need to adapt when defenses game plan to take away his strengths. this is much easier said than done, and will likely require a learning curve.
The Thunder have arrived ahead of their time, and that isn't a bad thing by any means. But, their youth and inexperience will absolutely hurt them during this year's postseason run. This is to be expected, and the lessons these young players learn will pay dividends for years to come. That being said, the inexperience of the young players on the Thunder's roster will be a fatal flaw that prevents Oklahoma City from making a serious run at the Larry O'Brien Trophy this year.
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