If predictability is what you're looking for in your sports teams, you would have hated being a San Diego Padres fan the past few seasons. They've overperformed and they've underperformed. They've seen Fernando Tatís Jr. become a superstar, get suspended, and find his way back. They've gone all-in, fully pivoted and slashed the budget, then cautiously pushed some chips back to the middle.
Essentially, whenever the Padres have looked to be in any position to zig, that's precisely when they've decided to zag, and now it's left them in an interesting spot. They have a very solid roster, a good mix between youth and veteran leadership, but they are stuck in the National League West, which is arguably tougher than we've ever seen it be.
Off to a disappointing 4-5 start, there's more than enough time for San Diego to establish a foothold and start building a bridge to a Wild Card spot this season. But they also cannot afford to sit still and hope the roster exactly as currently constructed can coalesce into the best version of the Padres. If they want to get to the dance, they'll need to make some bold moves like these…
Trade for an outfield defender
Regardless of who it is they go after, it should be a top priority to relieve the pressure on Jackson Merrill to both master big-league pitching as a 20-year-old and play center field full-time for the first time in his life. Merrill has all the potential to be a star, but it's too much to ask from a rookie to solve all the team's roster deficiencies at once.
There are a number of directions this could go. The clickbait-y thing to do would have been to say the Pads should go out and get Luis Robert Jr. from the Chicago White Sox, but Robert's $12.5 million salary would put the Padres over the luxury tax threshold, which seems like one of the most obvious no-gos for San Diego this season. Still, if that were to happen, few would be surprised given A.J. Preller's recent penchant for blockbuster trades.
No, the Padres are looking for a bargain option who can provide stability on defense at the major league level, preferably someone who can handle center field duties. Mike Tauchman stands out, because he's blocked on the Chicago Cubs by Cody Bellinger, and he had a fantastic walk rate in 2023 after a stint in the KBO.
Elsewhere, the Friars could look into prying Willi Castro away from the Minnesota Twins, or there's even a world where one of the Milwaukee Brewers' young outfielders (say, Garrett Mitchell) becomes available if Jackson Chourio continues to blossom and hog at-bats. It almost doesn't matter who they get–they just need flexibility to ensure Merrill gets the safety net he needs to develop at his own pace.
Option 3B Graham Pauley to AAA
The Padres have one of the strangest, most fascinating infield pictures in all of baseball.
They signed Xander Bogaerts for $270 million to play shortstop, then moved him to second base. They signed Jake Cronenworth to a $70 million extension to play second base, then moved him to first. All of this was centered around putting the superior defender, Ha Seong Kim, at short, but Kim is an impending free agent and could be traded if the team falls out of playoff contention.
Meanwhile, Graham Pauley, the team's No. 8 prospect, made the big-league roster out of camp, but only has two starts in the team's first nine games. He hit his first big league home run on Saturday, but has gone 1-for-7 since. His primary position is also third base and that happens to be the one infield spot locked down by a Gold Glover with long-term control in Manny Machado.
So it's unclear where Pauley fits into the picture long-term, but the number one thing the Padres should be focusing on is getting the 23-year-old everyday reps and boosting his trade value in the case that San Diego becomes buyers at the deadline. It won't do the team any good to keep a valuable asset like Pauley sitting on the bench at Petco Park.
Sign FA RHP James Kaprielian
Trading for Dylan Cease made the Padres' rotation much more formidable, but it isn't without its question marks. Matt Waldron is currently penciled in as the fifth starter and relying on a pitcher who routinely throws a knuckleball in 2024 is a scary proposition.
Elsewhere, the Pads have Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez, two pieces acquired in the Juan Soto deal, in the bullpen and at AAA, respectively. Both could hypothetically pan out, but we've yet to see it from either at the big-league level. So why not add one more poker chip, especially one who has a little success under his belt?
Once considered a top prospect, 30-year-old James Kaprielian got left in the dust with the Oakland Athletics, pitching just 61 innings to a 6.34 ERA in 2023 before a season-ending shoulder surgery to repair a labrum tear. But he's fully recovered now and showed legitimate promise in 2021 and 2022, posting a 4.19 ERA over 253 innings of work.
We're only talking about a minor-league deal here, a chance for Kaprielian to prove he still has the chops to be a big-leaguer. For a team like the Padres, depth in the rotation is essential, and finding the fifth piece to the puzzle is worth as many bites at the apple as it takes to find one that succeeds.
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