The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the most unpredictable franchises in all of professional sports when it comes to making trades. As a low-budget franchise, they're always willing to be a year early in trading away their biggest names rather than risking losing them for nothing. But we've also seen, particularly in the 2020s, that the Rays are willing to make a marquee addition midseason if they think it will increase their odds at a championship.
At 19-19 approaching the quarter turn of the 2024 season, the Rays are going to be one of the most interesting teams to watch at the trade deadline. Their buy/sell decisions could come down to whether they play good or bad baseball in the final two weeks leading up to the deadline. Or, they could do the exact opposite of what we all think if they get a good deal.
No matter what, Tampa Bay will be one of the teams with the greatest impact on the rest of the league based on who they chase versus who they make available.
So let's make a trio of realistic trades the Rays could pull off between now and the deadline that represent the full spectrum of paths Tampa Bay might take if the market swings any particular direction. The only real directive is that we can't realistically expect the Rays to take on significant long-term payroll, but everything else is on the table.
It's time to step into the button-down of president Erik Neander and start wheeling and dealing.
Trade 2B Brandon Lowe
The Rays are the masters of cutting bait with players who have been extremely productive for them in the past, but won't be big parts of their future. Look at their trade of Chris Archer that netted them Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow, or the subsequent trade of Meadows that brought them Isaac Paredes. Now it's longtime second baseman Brandon Lowe's turn to help secure the next version of the Rays' low-cost, high-output baseball machine.
Lowe has a 125 OPS+ in his seven-year Rays career, punctuated by a 39-homer season in 2021. He is on his second contract and has eight-figure club options for 2025 and 2026. But the Rays won't want to pay that, because Lowe has spent most of this season on the injured list and the Rays have found a tandem at second base that replaces his production for a quarter of the price. Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario have been two of the most consistent hitters on the team, rendering Lowe expendable.
There are a number of teams that could make sense as trade partners for Lowe, so it likely comes down to who among playoff contenders is desperate enough to overpay Tampa Bay at the deadline. The St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are all in the same division and have had no production from their second base options.
And the New York Yankees, one of the Rays' top adversaries, stand to let a struggling Gleyber Torres walk after this season. They could be happy to pay Lowe's club options ($10.5 million, then $11.5 million) rather than look elsewhere for their next second baseman.
Acquire Marlins LHP Jesús Luzardo
As much as the Rays are willing to part with anyone at any time, they will also take their occasional swing at a marquee trade target if they feel it comes at a position of need. They did it with DH Nelson Cruz in 2021, although that backfired due to Cruz's poor performance, and then again in 2023 with starting pitcher Aaron Civale.
This season, it appears the Rays need help in the rotation once again, with Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Shane Baz still recovering from Tommy John surgery. So, they swoop in and snag one of the most coveted arms at the deadline, the Miami Marlins' Jesús Luzardo.
In October, it would have seemed unfathomable the Marlins would trade Luzardo. He had just turned 26 and was coming off a season where he struck out 208 batters, 12th in MLB, to help guide Miami to the postseason.
But he has a 6.58 ERA in five starts this season, is currently on a rehab assignment after dealing with an elbow strain and is on a Marlins team that has gone into full-on tank/rebuild mode. So suddenly, he seem like one of the more sensible options for the Marlins to deal in exchange for a sizable haul of future talent.
Luzardo has exactly the same amount of team control remaining as Civale did when the Rays acquired him last season–he becomes a free agent after 2026. He's making $5.5 million this season, less than Lowe, who we just hypothetically erased from the Rays' books, and stands to make about the same next year based on his shoddy start to 2024.
But the Rays know Luzardo is capable of dominance and they have one of the more notorious pitching factories in the league that should ensure Luzardo performs at his best. If they part with a pair of top-ten organizational prospects, they can get their man in Luzardo.
Trade RP Shawn Armstrong for Kansas City Royals RP James McArthur
This is a move that's so Tampa Bay Rays it hurts. Shawn Armstrong is a 33-year-old journeyman reliever who has seen his most success by far as a member of the Rays. He's had two stints in Tampa with a 2.82 ERA over 106 appearances, and a 5.19 ERA in his 149 appearances elsewhere.
The 2023 season was his Mona Lisa, posting a 1.38 ERA in 52 innings with 54 strikeouts. But Armstrong is also a free agent at the end of this season and at his advanced age, it's questionable whether the Rays would even want to bring him back, let alone outbid other potential suitors in free agency.
So what to do instead? Trade one of their most proven bullpen pieces for an unproven piece from another organization, only to apply a little magic Rays pixie dust and turn the new guy into a lethal weapon. The Kansas City Royals' James McArthur is 27, has just 33 career appearances and a 4.43 ERA. But when the Rays look at someone like him, all they see is potential.
McArthur is 6-foot-7, has top 10% whiff and walk rates and throws a knee-buckling curveball that has a high whiff rate, but also gets hit harder than you would think. The Rays could take his pitch mix in a number of exciting directions, whether it's switching from the sinker to the four-seam to tunnel off the curveball or turning the slider into more of a sweeper. This is a way for Tampa Bay to sell an expiring asset to a team desperate to contend and grab a controllable piece that will remain a fixture of their bullpen for the next half-decade.
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