Fantasy football is a game of strategy and projection. One of the keys to success is identifying which players are overvalued and which are undervalued. In this article, we will discuss five running backs whom we consider as busts for the 2023 NFL season. These players include Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders, Breece Hall, and Kenneth Walker III.

1. Josh Jacobs (Las Vegas Raiders)

In the previous season, Josh Jacobs emerged as a major contributor to fantasy football teams. Despite being selected in the later rounds of drafts, he managed to finish in the top 3 in terms of PPR points among all running backs.

This year, his Average Draft Position (ADP) reflects his past success. However, those hoping for a repeat of his breakout 2022 season might be in for disappointment. His prolonged absence from camp could negatively impact his production. Yes, he already has a contract now, but his production could still dip. As such, there's still some risk that he will need time to regain his in-season form and adapt to the team's offensive strategy.

Notably, it's important to recognize that although Jacobs has shown consistent performance as a professional, he's truly excelled on just one occasion. With a league-leading 393 touches in the previous year, there's a concern that his substantial workload might detrimentally affect his physical condition and explosiveness in 2023. Additionally, the absence of Darren Waller and Derek Carr could lead to more challenging defensive setups. Given the shift to Jimmy Garoppolo as the quarterback, Las Vegas might struggle to stretch the field as effectively. It might be wise to go another route due to this level of uncertainty.

2. Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans)

Derrick Henry also faced predictions of being a bust in the previous season due to concerns about his workload and past injuries. Recovering from a foot fracture that kept him sidelined for the latter half of 2021, he had already carried the ball over 300 times in consecutive seasons.

However, he defied expectations with yet another exceptional year. Remember that he accumulated 349 carries. In addition, he displayed his best receiving performance to date. He even finished fourth among all running backs in PPR formats.

Despite his success, similar worries persist this year. At 29 years old and with a career total of 1,750 carries, he possesses a unique physique for a running back that withstands significant punishment. Nevertheless, we're not sure if he can defy Father Time.

This is compounded by uncertainty in the Titans' offensive line. Take note that Henry just registered his first season with less than 100 rushing yards per game in four years. Factor in the potential for rookie quarterback Will Levis to take the reins at some point, and Henry might sadly live up to the bust predictions this season.

3. Miles Sanders (Carolina Panthers)

Running back Miles Sanders finally broke through with a Pro Bowl-worthy performance in 2022. However, it's important to note that his success was aided by the formidable offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Unfortunately, Sanders won't enjoy the same advantages with the Panthers. They feature a promising but untested quarterback in first overall pick Bryce Young. While Young has potential as an NFL quarterback, his physical attributes—standing will lead to extensively designed running plays. In these scenarios, opposing defenses will focus their attention on stopping Sanders. That's a luxury they didn't have when he played for Philadelphia.

Furthermore, the presence of Chuba Hubbard ensures that Sanders won't monopolize crucial carries. For Sanders to thrive in fantasy football, Panthers offensive coordinator Thomas Brown will need to involve him more in the passing game. Despite being capable as a receiver, Sanders only caught 20 passes in 2022. All these mean that Sanders still carries substantial risk at his current ADP.

4. Breece Hall (New York Jets)

Breece Hall's ADP is beginning to decline. In some platforms, he is currently at 32.3 as the 13th running back taken off the board. However, we still think this is too high. Dalvin Cook's joining the Jets will also significantly impact Hall's potential. And then there's Hall's recovery from a torn ACL. That's a feat that historically proves challenging for running backs in their first year back. Recall that Hall remained on the PUP list for a long time, and updates on his progress have not been too positive. While Hall could reassert his dominance this season, similar to his rookie year, nobody should draft him as a top-15 running back this year.

5. Kenneth Walker III (Seattle Seahawks)

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll recently mentioned that Kenneth Walker III is now running at full speed. Recall that Walker was sidelined due to a groin injury during training camp. This positive news aside, Walker's absence has allowed Zach Charbonnet to showcase his skills. This creates a potential challenge for Walker's prospects this season. With Charbonnet vying for playing time, selecting Walker earlier than the fifth round might not be justifiable. That said, Walker had an impressive rookie year in 2022. This made the Seahawks' Round 2 selection of Charbonnet in the NFL Draft a surprise move. Clearly, Seattle felt the need to reinforce Walker, but this might potentially limit his opportunities on the field.

Looking Ahead

In conclusion, identifying busts is a key part of fantasy football strategy. We think these players include Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders, Breece Hall, and Kenneth Walker III. While these players may still have value in certain situations, fantasy owners should be cautious when drafting them early and consider other options.