UFC 301 has reached a fever pitch from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and it's finally time for the marquee fight on the card as we bring you a betting prediction and pick. This fight will be for the UFC Flyweight Title as Champion Alexandre Pantoja of Brazil defends his strap against No. 10-ranked Steve Erceg of Australia. Check out our UFC odds series for our Pantoja-Erceg prediction and pick.

Alexandre Pantoja (27-5) has gone 11-3 in the UFC since 2017 en route to capturing the Flyweight belt. He won four consecutive fights over top competition before beating Brandon Royval unanimously for his first title defense. After cleaning the top of the division, he'll defend the belt from a hungry challenger making his first title appearance. Pantoja stands 5'5″ with a 67-inch reach.

Steve Erceg (12-1) has gone a perfect 3-0 in his short UFC tenure since 2023. He's a former champ at Eternal MMA and his rise to the title came after beating Matt Schnell via knockout his last time out. He's sure his skill set is worthy to challenge for the belt and Erceg believes its time for the title to change hands. He stands 5'8″ with a 68-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 301 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC 301 Odds: Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg Odds

Alexandre Pantoja: -192

Steve Erceg: +167

Over 3.5 rounds: -150

Under 3.5 rounds: +120

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Alexandre Pantoja Will Win

Alexandre Pantoja got a hero's welcome when returning back home to Brazil after winning the belt over Brandon Moreno and he proved his worth as a champion by defending against Brandon Royval in a masterful performance. He'll have a chance to defend once again against a hyped opponent in Steve Erceg, but we have to acknowledge the experience and level of competition Pantoja has faced up to this point. He also leveled-up his confidence after winning the title and it was apparent in his fight with Royval that his newfound champion-aura has translated to his fighting.

Fighting in a Main Event in his home country of Brazil will be a dream come true for Pantoja as this fight card was built around him. He's extremely motivated in terms of his work ethic and becoming champion has only further lit the flame more underneath him. While his opponent is quick on the feet, Pantoja is both a world-class striker and grappler, finishing eight wins by KO/TKO and 10 by submission while never getting finished himself. On the ground, Pantoja seems to look more fluid each time out and just when we think he can't get any better, he keeps improving and adding new wrinkles to his game. Expect to see the best version of Alexandre Pantoja on Saturday.

Why Steve Erceg Will Win

Steve Erceg has seen quite the unusual path to the title, but his arrival to the UFC was a hot topic long before he stepped into the cage under the biggest promotion in the world. He was a champion in Australia under Eternal MMA and the “Astro Boy” made a big statement in his debut with a unanimous decision win over David Dvorak. He has a lightning-fast striking game and he darts in and out of range very effectively. His power his deceptive for his frame and he's also an extremely competent grappler, defending 77% of the takedowns coming his way. With half of his wins coming by way of submission, he poses and unique challenge on the ground to the champion Pantoja.

Steve Erceg will likely have the speed advantage here and he's also the slightly longer guy. With the way he bounces on his toes and stays at a safe range, expect him to utilize this advantage in closing the distance and getting out of Pantoja's way. He's very explosive with his movements, making him very unpredictable and hard to read in the scrambles. His biggest disadvantage will be the gap in experience, but if he's built for this moment, he should be able to withstand this test and become the new champ.

Final Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg Prediction & Pick

Fans will be treated to a very exciting championship bout at the very apex of this fight card and given both fighters' skill sets, the pace will be furious from the very start. Alexandre Pantoja will be defending the belt in front of his home country for the first time and he'll have a chance to continue his reign as a dominant champion. He has all the tools to match Erceg in every aspect of this fight, coupled with the experience and mindset of becoming a champion.

Steve Erceg has seen a massive climb up the rankings and will be fighting for the belt in just his fourth UFC appearance. The promotion wasted no time in building him up as a prospect and clearly believe he has what it takes to make this a competitive fight. This will be Erceg's first time in a five-round environment, so it'll be interesting to see how he spaces his game out throughout the rounds.

Still, Alexandre Pantoja will be on another level during this fight and I believe it may be too much too fast for Steve Erceg at this point. He'll prove everyone, including oddsmakers, wrong if he's able to pull out the upset, but I'm going to have to side with the experience and champion acumen of Pantoja. He's willing to make this a five-round fight and will be the best grappler Erceg has had to face up to this point. Let's roll with the champion to retain his belt as this fight hits the over in total rounds.

Click here for more betting news and predictions

Final Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg Prediction & Pick: Alexandre Pantoja (-192); OVER 3.5 Rounds (-150)