After a disappointing first-round exit to the New York Knicks in the playoffs last season, the Cleveland Cavaliers are determined to come back better than ever, and oddsmakers think so as well with the lofty over-under-win-total they have set for them. Teams like the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and Philadelphia 76ers have been the only teams out of the East making significant headlines during the off-season. This leaves the door open for the Cavaliers to be a bit of a sleeper contender coming out of the East this season.
With head coach J.B. Bickerstaff entering his fourth full season in Cleveland, he is ready to make some real noise in the league. Posting a lineup comprised of superstar Donovan Mitchell surrounded by an incredibly talented starting five of Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers boast one of the most complete lineups this season. But do they have enough firepower to keep up with the powerhouses of the Eastern Conference?
Here are the Cavaliers NBA Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Cleveland Cavaliers Odds
Over: 50.5 wins (-122)
Under: 50.5 wins (+100)
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Why The Cavaliers Will Win 51 Games
Shooting the ball in droves greatly matters in the NBA today, but shooting efficiency is the most critical component. The Cavaliers are so dynamic in effectiveness, shooting around the rim and beyond the arc. The Cavaliers had the sixth most percentage of points stemming from inside the paint in the league last season, with 47.0% of their points coming from this area. In addition, they had the fifth-best team shooting percentage in the league. This team loaded up with sharpshooters by boasting six players on their current roster who made an average of 1.5 threes or more last season. Adding to a squad that finished top 12 last season in team three-point field goal percentage, the Cavs are more than prepared for the modern NBA game with an impressive inside-and-out offensive style.
The Cavaliers seemed to gravitate toward a specific need for sharpshooting wings this off-season and found some gems. Focusing on these sharpshooters, they signed Georges Niang, Max Strus, and Ty Jerome in free agency. Most notably, Max Strus comes in off the heels of a playoff run to remember for the Miami Heat as he played hero for them on multiple occasions, leading them to the NBA Finals. Between their starting five and deep bench, the Cavaliers have many guys who can go out and drill the three.
Why The Cavaliers Will Not Win 51 Games
One of the most interesting cases in the NBA is the physicality of the Cavaliers. They have the tenaciousness to attack the rim with authority and efficiency on offense, but they appear to lose their edge when it comes to rebounding and disrupting shots. The duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen was exposed in the opening round of the playoffs to the Knicks last season. In this 4-1 series loss, they were outrebounded 227 to 186, blown out of the water in steals 50 to 34, and outdone in blocks 23 to 20. The Knicks bullied them around on defense. The Cavaliers simply did not have an answer for the toughness they faced.
As for their play on the interior throughout the regular season, it was pretty abysmal. Shockingly, the rebounding was not there for the team. Cleveland had the sixth-lowest total rebounds in the league and ranked in the bottom nine in offensive boards. With all of this lack of rebounding and overall physicality around the rim, it is surprising they did not add another big in the off-season. He is not only a big but a player in general who can bring some grit to this franchise. Without this toughness, the Cavaliers will continue to be outmanned around the rim, especially with consistent matchups against bigs like Antetokounmpo, Lopez, Portis, Embiid, Porzingis, Capela, and more.
Final Cavaliers Over-Under Win Total Prediction
Considering the Cavaliers went 51-31 last season, it is tough to imagine them regressing with the talent they still have and the talent they acquired in the off-season. It may hurt that they have seen their rivals do nothing but acquire superstars over the past several months, like Milwaukee and Boston. However, the Cavs went out and got their star last off-season with Donovan Mitchell and have had over a year to develop team chemistry and fully learn the team's system. That said, I will take the over-win total as I expect the Cavs to finish the year as a top-three seed in the Eastern Conference.
Final Cavaliers Over-Under Win Total Prediction: Over 50.5 wins (-122)
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