The UFC is back and ready for another stacked Pay-Per-View event as UFC 301 arrives in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We'll be bringing you a prediction and pick for this next Early Prelim in the Women's Flyweight (125) Division as Contender Series newcomers Dione Barbosa and Ernesta Kareckaite both make their debuts. Check out our UFC odds series for our Barbosa-Kareckaite prediction and pick.

Dione Barbosa (6-2) makes her debut after an armbar submission win in her Dana White's Contender Series fight. Beginning her pro career in 2021, the 31-year old went 2-1 under the LFA promotion, but her lifelong practice of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu gives her all the tools needed to make this a successful debut in her home country. Barbosa stands 5'6″ with a 66.5-inch reach.

Ernest Kareckaite (5-0-1) will also debut after a split decision win in her DWCS audition fight. She's fought in a number of promotions and has experience fighting Muay Thai and boxing, but she'll look to stay unbeaten during her MMA career. She makes her debut in hostile territory as the betting underdog. Kareckaite stands 5'9″ with a 71-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 301 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC 301 Odds: Dione Barbosa-Ernesta Kareckaite Odds

Dione Barbosa: -205

Ernesta Kareckaite: +175

Over 2.5 rounds: -205

Under 2.5 rounds: +165

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Why Dione Barbosa Will Win

Dione Barbosa is coming into her debut fight with a clear advantage in the grappling. She's a lifelong practitioner of jiu jitsu and of her six wins, three have come by way of submission. She's still working on her striking and will need to be careful at range against a kickboxer like Kareckaite, but we should see some evolution in her striking skills from her DWCS fight back in September 2023. While she may be able to pose a threat on the feet, Barbosa's clearest path to victory will be getting this fight down to the ground and chaining submission attempts.

After back-to-back unanimous decision wins where she dominated on the ground, it was promising to see Barbosa go out and get the first-round finish in her most important fight on DWCS. She's the rightful favorite here and fighting in front of a Brazilian crowd will definitely give her that added juice when stepping into the cage. She'll have some size disadvantages to make up for, but if she can quickly close the distance and grab a hold of Kareckaite, she should be able to grind out another decision win.

Why Ernesta Kareckaite Will Win

Ernesta Kareckaite comes into this fight with a varied history in kickboxing and boxing, giving her the clear striking advantage in this matchup. She's very crisp when striking at range and once she finds flow in her striking rhythm, she's hard to close the distance on and hit cleanly. She'll want to keep this fight on the feet as she also possesses a height and reach advantage. Look for Kareckaite to deter Barbosa and stuff takedowns with knees up the middle upon level changes and entries.

Ernesta Kareckaite is a physical specimen in terms of her size and reach for this division, but she'll need to use that size and be the more aggressive fighter during this bout. She will need to be emphatic in stuffing the takedowns and deter Barbosa from fighting where she's comfortable. Kareckaite should look to pepper the body and work on tiring Barbosa out. If she can be the fresher, more active fight by Round 3, we should see the tide swing in her favor once she starts opening up her boxing combinations.

Final Dione Barbosa-Ernesta Kareckaite Prediction & Pick

This will be an exciting fight to kick-off the women's action at UFC 301 and we'll see a classic matchup of striker vs. grappler in this one. Dione Barbosa is very dominant with her jiu jitsu and she'll be looking to cap her debut off with an impressive submission win. Still, if she can't find the finish, she stands to dominate on the ground with her top control and ground-and-pound.

Ernesta Kareckaite should have been working on her takedown defense ahead of this one and if she's successful in keeping this fight standing, she'll stand her best chance to win on the back of her striking and reach advantage at range.

While Kareckaite is the much cleaner striker, I expect Dione Barbosa to be the much more aggressive fighter and impose her will on Kareckaite. We've seen the Lithuanian struggle in getting back to her feet when on the ground and she won't have much room to work against a grappler of Barbosa's caliber.

For our prediction, let's roll with Dione Barbosa to get the win. While the line is juiced for this fight to go over, let's take a shot on the under as Barbosa finishes this fight with a submission win. The crowd will give her added motivation to finish and she'll be eager to show off her grappling in front of an appreciative crowd.

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Final Dione Barbosa-Ernesta Kareckaite Prediction & Pick: Dione Barbosa (-205); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+165)