The New York Knicks have played exceptional basketball for most of 2024. They have been selfless and team-oriented, all they have played some of the best defense in the NBA since acquiring OG Anunoby from the Toronto Raptors in late December. Still, the playoffs are an entirely different beast. Most teams have preferences regarding who they face and how many rounds they possess home court advantage. And while there are certainly dream matchups and scenarios, there are nightmare ones, too. Let’s explore what those look like.
The Eastern Conference is admittedly tight, and it’s gotten even tighter for the Knicks. New York dropped to fifth place in the Easter after Thursday night’s loss to the Denver Nuggets. They are only a half-game behind the Orlando Magic with 13 games remaining. So, there is ample time to reclaim the fourth (or even the third) seed.
The Knicks post-season fortunes will come down to health. If Anunoby, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson can all return before the playoffs, matchups and paths are far less meaningful. Still, there are some situations that New York should hope to avoid.
Knicks nightmare match-up
First, let’s discuss match-ups. While it might seem prudent to look at regular season records as a means of understanding which teams the Knicks matchup best with, it’s not as reliable for New York. Why? Because the Knicks are a significantly different team now than before Christmas, and their entire February was mared with injury.
Ultimately, the most important first-round matchup to avoid for the Knicks — and really every team in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt – is the Philadelphia 76ers.
Granted, the 76ers have struggled of late. Philadelphia has only won four of their last 10 games. But there is a major feast or famine moment coming for Philadelphia, and it has to do with reigning MVP Joel Embiid.
Embiid underwent a medical procedure to correct a Meniscus issue on February 6. But sources say he will try to make his return in two to three weeks, according to John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia.
No one wants to see a healthy 76ers team, including New York. Prior to Embiid’s injury, the 76ers were 29-15, and Embiid is obviously among the toughest guys to game plan for in the entire league. He was averaging 35.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game prior to his injury.
But there is some good news for the Knicks. Philadelphia is presently the eighth seed. They are technically tied with the Miami Heat, and they are one-and-a-half games behind the sixth seed Indiana Pacers. Without Embiid, wins will continue to be difficult to accrue. So, it is highly unlikely that New York squares off with Philadelphia, at least in the first round, as that requires major seeding changes.
Knicks nightmare scenarios
Matchups and scenarios are distinctly different. Matchups can can change quickly with injuries and/or players contributing more than their normal output. Conversely, scenarios have bigger implications.
So, regardless as to which team they end up facing in the first-round, the scenario that New York is probably hoping to avoid is ending up as the fourth or fifth seed. Why? Because that means a likely second-round matchup with the Boston Celtics.
Boston looks like the best team in the NBA. They are a league-best 55-14, and they are 4-0 against New York this season. While the Knicks have not faced Boston as currently constructed with a full healthy lineup, Boston is too good to voluntarily spar with.
When healthy, the Celtics are a well-oiled machine. They can push the ball, spread the floor, and dominate in half-court sets. They are well-coached, and feature a good mix of veteran savviness and springy athleticism. Put succinctly, they are terrifying.
Even if the Knicks upset the Celtics, they would inevitably be worse for the ware after a presumably long and gruelling series. And there would still be eight more wins (and as many as 14 games) before reaching the ultimate goal, a championship.
The Knicks have a number of injuries to consider before looking ahead to the playoffs, and they shouldn’t waste too much time thinking about matchups or seeding. Still, it’s natural to look ahead and think about what might be. But one thing’s for sure, New York is a nightmare matchup for every Eastern Conference foe, assuming they get healthy. The main goal now is ensuring that potential translates to success.
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