The New York Knicks are essentially a shoo-in to return to the NBA Playoffs in 2024. They’ve had an incredibly successful season — save for a few down weeks in February — and the organization should be upbeat about its immediate and long-term future. Having said that, some first-round match-ups are more advantageous than others. And looking ahead, seeding issues can impact a deep playoff run, too. Let’s examine the best possible situations for the Knicks in terms of their playoff success
The East’s incredibly tight playoff race allows for only a small margin of error. Two or three games can literally make the difference between home-court advantage and the play-in tournament. And it could get even tighter.
Fortunately, the Knicks are operating from a position of power. They are presently 41-27. If the playoffs started today, New York would be the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. And they’re playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.
Knicks dream match-ups
First, let’s discuss match-ups. Ideal match-ups do not grow on trees. The Orlando Magic are presently the fifth seed, meaning they would face the Knicks.
Purely from a matchup perspective, the idea of the Knicks facing the Magic is about as good as it gets. Interestingly, the Knicks are just 1-3 against the Magic this season. But there’s more to those games than meets the eye.
The first of those games was played in late December, just days before New York’s trade with the Toronto Raptors that landed them OG Anunoby. And the Knicks were struggling to generate wins and find an identity in late December.
Further, the third matchup was played in mid-February, at the height of the Knicks’ injury woes. So, there is limited information regarding how healthy versions of these teams match up.
So, why is Orlando a good matchup? Frankly, their inexperience has a lot to do with it. The Magic’s starting five is the fourth-least experienced starting rotation in the NBA. And their best player, Paolo Bachero, is still only 21 years old.
But there are also alternatives to consider. The Philadelphia 76ers could return reigning MVP Joel Embiid. So, with a month or so to go in the regular season, no one wants to sign up to face them. And even without Embiid, the 76ers are scrappy. The Miami Heat are even scrappier than Philadelphia. And they play up to their competition, especially in the playoffs, thanks to coach Erik Spoelstra and Heat culture.
That realistically leaves only Orlando and the Indiana Pacers as first-round foes. And while there are pros and cons to either matchup, the Magic probably represent the path of least resistance this season.
Knicks dream scenarios
Obviously, dream scenarios and dream matchups are not mutually exclusive. While Orlando represents (possibly) the best opponent for the Knicks, the idea of playing the Boston Celtics in the second round is daunting. So, there is an entirely different path to the Eastern Conference Finals (and maybe farther) that's smoother — snagging the third seed.
Securing the third seed means avoiding the best team in the NBA (at least in terms of records) for another round. That’s certainly desirable. Further, leapfrogging the Cleveland Cavaliers means a likely Cleveland versus Boston second-round match-up. And while Cleveland has struggled of late, much of that has been the result of an unhealthy Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell will return from a nasal fracture before the playoffs. And his most recent injury incidentally resulted in extra rest for his bruised knee, from which he recently admitted he’d returned too soon, according to Cavs Insider.
Therefore, if Cleveland and Boston square off in the second round, the Knicks will have successfully avoided two of the most dangerous teams in the NBA. And as much as the Milwaukee Bucks are scary in their own way, they're probably the most desirable opponent of the three.
Finally, the most important part of any Knicks' dream scenario obviously involves their getting and remaining healthy, OG Anunoby's elbow flared up during a recent game against the Portland Trail Blazers. Fortunately, an MRI on his elbow came back clean, and he should return well before the playoffs. Mitchell Robinson is also on track to return before the playoffs. Coach Tom Thibodeau told the media that Robinson was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. And Julius Randle is still expected to return before the playoffs, too.
Mitchell Robinson went through full practice today, Tom Thibodeau said.
— Fred Katz (@FredKatz) March 20, 2024
The Knicks are in the enviable position of playing good basketball and getting healthy just as the regular season is winding down. Ultimately, it shouldn't matter which matchup or seed they secure, so long as they keep playing how they've been playing. And if they get healthy before the playoffs, New York might be a nightmare matchup for any team in their way.
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