The New Orleans Pelicans are approaching a crossroads with the luxury tax and the Feb. 8 trade deadline is just over a month away. Big names like O.G. Anunoby have already been moved. There are of course a lot of moving parts but, save for a Kira Lewis Jr. salary dump to avoid the luxury tax, it would not be surprising if the front office stood pat with the core of this team for the entire season. EVP David Griffin would even be justified in considering a contract extension for Jonas Valanciunas.
The big man can leave in free agency if New Orleans does not trade or extend the respected, dependable Valanciunas. The Pelicans are not going to let an asset out of town, but there is only so much time to negotiate a solution. So far, the trade market has been tepid. Behind Nicolas Claxton, Valanciunas would arguably be the second-best big man on the free agent market this summer. New Orleans is not likely to splurge next summer, so options for a competent rim protector who can space the floor remain limited.
Pelicans get no better value than Jonas Valanciunas
It's hard to see the downside in a contract extension. Better to dance with the devil you know and all. The Pelicans can play out the season with a reliable big man; Valanciunas gets the financial security. He has never tested free-agent waters and has little reason to start now that he is over 30 years old. The only question is at what price and how long. Two years more years at the current rate is a sensible start considering his production and the rising cap.
Valanciunas is carrying a $15,435,000 cap hit this season. Richaun Holmes will want at least that much in free agency, as will Isaiah Hartenstein. The front office has to answer two questions: Would either give the Pelicans a better option on either end of the court? If not, does New Orleans really need rim protection to the point of selling low on Valanciunas?
The Pelicans are 12th in offensive rating (118.7) over the past 15 games, second in defensive rating (109.9), and fourth in net rating (8.8). Coach Willie Green has them playing near-championship level basketball. Valanciunas has the best offensive rating on the team this season but the worst defensive rating (113) of any key contributor. However, to put that in perspective, the Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets, and LA Clippers all hover around 113, which is good for the 10th-best mark in the NBA.
Offering Valanciunas a two-year extension at just above the mid-level exception line gives the team flexibility and does not offend the 7-footer. Should he politely decline, see if there is a middle ground up to and including a slight million-dollar pay bump. If nothing shakes out, even though the Pelicans would have until June 30 to negotiate an extension, moving forward with a trade makes sense in the short- and long-term.
Trade options limited to all-or-nothing moves
New Orleans sent Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe's salary cap hits, along with two first-round picks, to acquire Valanciunas and the 17th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. That selection turned into Trey Murphy III, but that good fortune in the draft is hard to replicate. Getting a return on investment by dealing for a serviceable replacement and a first-round pick will be a hard bargain.
No team is going to swap for Kelly Olynyk without giving the Utah Jazz multiple first-round picks. Calling the Jazz for Olynyk would be an all-in move by this Pelicans front office. Ownership would have to agree to pay the luxury tax for that to happen. EVP David Griffin might get a first-rounder back going for a rental big to see out the season, but that's not a move the fan base will take kindly to.
Shopping the sales rack for names like Jalen Smith, Goga Bitadze, Christian Wood, Drew Eubanks, Daniel Theis, JaVale McGee, and Luke Kornet would only serve to shore up the team's depth. The Pelicans would still need a starting big man unless they went with Herb Jones or Zion Williamson there to start the game.
That's a bit extreme just to lose a respected veteran and dodge the luxury tax one last time. Still, the inevitable is coming with Trey Murphy III's rookie scale extension kicking in soon. A decision has to be made on Valanciunas sooner rather than later regardless of the luxury tax implications.
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