For the past two years, it has seemed like the Philadelphia Phillies don’t start caring about their baseball games until late summer at the earliest, and really only turn up the intensity when the playoffs officially begin. If the team’s 9-8 start with a -12 run differential is any indication, it could be a while once again until these Phillies find their footing in 2024.

When weighing the performance of a team with as much postseason pedigree as the Phils, it’s not as much about the wins and losses at this stage of the season as it is the game within the game–how the Phillies are performing in important situations and how the individuals who will make or break the success of this roster look in their small sample size. Even if it’s been a mediocre start to the season on the whole, there have been some big surprises baked into this Phillies season so far, some good and some petrifying, if you’re rooting for this team to win it all, come October.

Brandon Marsh leading the offense

On August 2, 2022, everyone’s Phillies trade deadline headline read something like “Phillies acquire Noah Syndergaard from Angels in exchange for former #1 pick Mickey Moniak.” Brandon Marsh, an outfielder with a .637 OPS in 93 games that year was considered a throw-in, some nice outfield depth for the Phillies to keep around as compensation for giving up on Moniak.

Since that day, all Marsh has done is rake against right-handed pitching, play steady defense in left and center field for the Phils and become a Philly icon. And this season, he’s been the only thing keeping the offense afloat, leading all qualified Phillies hitters in hits, home runs and OPS.

So, the next time your team trades for multiple players at the deadline, dare to dream that the throw-in in the deal might eventually become your team’s best hitter and a cultural touchpoint in your city. Because Brandon Marsh is proving anything is possible.

Nick Castellanos floundering at the plate

hiladelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos (8) hits a walk off RBI single during the ninth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park.
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Save your terrible Nick Castellanos global disaster jokes for another day. We’re here to get to the bottom of why the father of every Philadelphian’s favorite middle schooler can’t hit the broad side of a barn right now.

With a 28 OPS+, Castellanos is hitting like a pitcher right now. He has one hit in 28 plate appearances where the deciding pitch has been an offspeed, signaling that he simply isn’t seeing the pitches well out of the hand this year. He also has career highs in pop-up percentage and weak contact rate. It’s not a fun watch for Phillies fans when Castellanos is in the box these days.

At 32, it’s not like we can definitively say Castellanos is on the decline at this point, especially in such a small sample size. But there are too many alarming statistical red flags to not be at least a little concerned about whether he can fill the role the Phillies were hoping he would as a consistent run producer and everyday right fielder. These next few weeks are crucial for Castellanos to get out of this funk.

Zach Wheeler getting Jacob deGrom treatment

He’s second in MLB with 30 strikeouts. He’s got a 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his 24 innings pitched. And although WAR means nothing this time of year, Zach Wheeler has 0.8 fWAR, tied for the best in the league. But
 he doesn’t yet have a win?

Yes, in performances reminiscent of 2018-19 Jacob deGrom, Wheeler keeps going out there, shoving and getting no run support. Sunday’s outing was spoiled by a Jack Suwinski grand slam and otherwise, Wheeler is 0-2 despite giving up just four earned runs in his other three starts. For a pitcher who was 43-25 in his first four years as a Philly, all this losing has to be getting awfully tiresome.

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Four games are certainly enough to mark a trend, but there’s still plenty of time for the Phillies to start supporting their ace when he goes out there every fifth day. But they’d better get to hitting soon, because the last thing a team needs is its highest-paid player ever (per annual salary) to be disgruntled about a lack of run support.

Phillies’ bullpen is killing them

Despite having solid WAR as a group thanks to a bunch of valuable bulk outings from relievers, the Philadelphia bullpen has struggled mightily when it counts. They’re just 5-for-8 in save opportunities and rank 26th in MLB with a 5.24 bullpen ERA.

It’s the biggest names struggling the most for the Phils right now, which is always reason for concern. Jeff Hoffman’s ERA is fine, but he’s 1-for-3 in save opportunities, having been thrust into some tough spots. JosĂ© Alvarado got rocked by the Braves on Opening Day and his season stats have yet to recover. And Seranthony Dominguez has allowed three home runs, the second-most of anyone on the team behind Aaron Nola.

Good pitching out of the pen hasn’t just been a hallmark of this Phillies team in recent years, it’s a hallmark of just about any successful postseason team. And the Phillies even learned how crucial it is when Craig Kimbrel reared his ugly head in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks. While the rest of the team will likely be good enough to get the Phillies to the playoffs, Rob Thomson needs to know he has enough guys he can trust in the right situations by the time those games start to count, or it will be another season that ultimately ends in playoff heartbreak.