With Opening Day games set to kick off in under 24 hours, it's the last day for all of us to stake our claim on the 2024 MLB season before it's officially tainted by hindsight. And while favorites are favorites for a reason, today is the day to buck the trend. That's right, it's time to make some future MLB predictions that might lean a little towards the controversial end of the spectrum.
But this is far from a clickbait article — these picks, at least in the heart of this author, are all very much destined to come to fruition. Read on for the five boldest, yet most realistic predictions you'll see on any baseball-focused web page today as MLB Opening Day arrives.
The Orioles will NOT win the AL East
2023 was a dream season in Baltimore, at least until the start of October. Even the most optimistic projections for the season were shattered by a Baby Birds team that went out and dominated the established powers in baseball's toughest division. And don't take this as a total dismissal — the Orioles are still very much going to be factors in the playoff picture. But it's going to be a lot tougher to secure a division crown this time around.
The 2023 O's were 30-16 in one-run games, an astonishing testament to their nerves of steel and all-world closer Félix Bautista. But Bautista is on the shelf, likely for the entire season, and history has proven that one-run game success tends to regress to the mean from season to season.
Baltimore did trade for ace Corbin Burnes, but they lost Kyle Bradish at the top of the rotation, a pitcher who ERA+ says was 19% better than Burnes last season, for an unknown stretch of time. And most importantly, the Orioles aren't catching anyone by surprise this season. The New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays and even Boston Red Sox will all be gunning to embarrass the hotshot defending champs every time they face off this trip through the baseball calendar.
Fernando Tatís Jr. will win NL MVP
Much has been made about the disappointment of Fernando Tatís Jr.'s offensive season in 2023, but he quietly laid the groundwork for a future version of himself that could be greater than anything we've seen from him before. El Niño stole a career-high 29 bases in 141 games, making him one of just eight players in the league with 25+ homers and 25+ steals. And more importantly, he settled into right field faster than anyone saw coming, taking home Platinum Glove honors thanks to an array of ridiculous defensive highlights.
With those other aspects of his game rounding out his profile so nicely, doesn't it make perfect sense that Tatís would elevate his hitting back to where it was when he clubbed 41 homers in 2021? Missing an entire season due to injury and suspension, working his way back to being ready for 2023 after a delayed start, and dealing with the public scrutiny a PED scandal always brings all clearly took their toll.
But we know what a brilliant hitter Tatís can be, and if he lives up to his potential, he can easily be the best player in even the most loaded NL talent pool in recent memory. That's why we're going with Tatis as NL MVP as part of these MLB predictions.
Pablo López will take home the AL Cy Young
Defending champ Gerrit Cole may be out of the current picture on MLB Opening Day and beyond, but the American League has a crazy deep field of starting pitchers. Kevin Gausman is a returning finalist, Luis Castillo and George Kirby will be driving each other to succeed at the top of Seattle's rotation, and the aforementioned Burnes has entered the picture for Baltimore. But if Pablo López delivers the season he has proven he's capable of, no one will be able to touch him.
Last season, López was adjusting to a new team, watching the man he was traded for bat .400 for three-plus months and being overshadowed by Sonny Gray at the top of his own rotation. Then he fine-tuned his sweeper and everything started to click into place.
By the end of the year, though, López was pitching better than Gray and was the true stopper for the Twins in the postseason, throwing 12.2 innings of one-run ball in a pair of playoff wins. Through it all, he still finished third in MLB in strikeouts with 234. Expect López to fully unleash his dominant arsenal from the very beginning in 2024, and in this MLB predictions space we predict an AL Cy Young winner.
Wyatt Langford will earn a top-10 MVP finish
It isn't enough to pick the Rangers' budding star Wyatt Langford, who nearly cracked the team's World Series roster with no big league at-bats to his name, to win Rookie of the Year, considering his installment as the betting favorite by most gambling sites. No, there's more than that in store for the 22-year-old Langford, who is poised to take the American League by storm.
Per MLB.com's Jim Callis, only two draft picks in MLB history have ever made Opening Day rosters with less professional experience than the former Florida Gator. That's because Langford has simply laid waste to the pitching he has seen since the Rangers took him fourth overall, putting up a bonkers 1.157 OPS in 44 MiLB games and leading the Cactus League in total bases this spring.
If you can hit, you'll find your way quickly in any league, and Langford can absolutely pummel the baseball. He's going to be one of the talking points of the entire league as the season rolls along.
The Philadelphia Phillies will win the World Series
The Dodgers are a superteam. The Braves, in Philadelphia's own division, are arguably even more talented and cohesive. But not only could the Fightin' Phils easily hang with both in the regular season, but once the chips are down in October, the lived experience of the past two years will give Philly an undeniable edge.
There's a lot to be said for a club that has come ever-so-close to a championship, but not quite achieved it. This entire core is famished to bring a parade down Broad Street, especially after being unceremoniously bounced on their home field last season by the upstart Diamondbacks. The lineup and pitching staff are both anchored by a bunch of in-prime established stars, with a number of young players also ready to take steps forward (see: Bryson Stott, Ranger Suarez, Christopher Sanchez).
It's all bound to come together for this club at some point in the Bryce Harper era. To wrap up these 2024 MLB predictions, we believe this is the year for Philly to take home their first World Series since 2008.
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