The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for the top seed in the Western Conference for the first time since the Kevin Durant era. After a few years of rebuilding, the players fighting for that slot aren't too familiar with postseason ball. Stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams have either limited experience or have no experience at all in the postseason.
Because of that, the Thunder will need all the help they can get from the seeding in order to win it all. That means avoiding seasoned teams and playing against less talented or similarly inexperienced teams. Let's look at the Thunder's dream scenario for the the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
Thunder's best first-round opponent: Rockets
The Western Conference Play-In Tournament currently features five teams in the race. These involve big names like the Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks, and the Sacramento Kings. However, one team in particular stands out as the Thunder's best first-round matchup: the Houston Rockets.
Unlike the rest of the play-in field, the Rockets don't boast the same firepower. They do have a bunch of solid pieces on the roster: Alperen Sengun, Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Jalen Green is a much better group than most people give them credit for. However, even with their hot streak, the facts of the matter are that they pale in comparison to the rest of the field. Plus, Sengun isn't healthy right now anyway.
Should the Rockets leapfrog the Warriors in the standings and make it through the gauntlet, they should be the best opponent for a young Thunder team. They will be able to play through their weaknesses and inexperience against a less talented team, at least on paper.
Thunder's best second-round opponent: New Orleans Pelicans
Should the Thunder advance to the second round, they will be facing the winner of the first-round matchup between the fourth and the fifth seed. Currently, the teams hovering around that mark are the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans, and Phoenix Suns.
Again, all four are pretty strong candidates. However, it doesn't seem like Minnesota will be going out as the fourth seed, and the Suns and the Clippers have some battle-tested teams. That leaves the Pelicans as perhaps the best team for the Thunder to face in the second round.
It's certainly not going to be easy: Zion Williamson poses a huge threat to Chet Holmgren due to his playstyle. Brandon Ingram, when he's healthy, is an underrated first option. They still also have CJ McCollum and other key weapons available. When your other options are Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, or Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, though, Zion and Ingram seem like more sensible options.
Western Conference Finals: Minnesota Timberwolves
This one should be a bit of a no-brainer, right? As it stands, the Denver Nuggets are the most likely opponent for the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. The defending champions have turned it up a notch in the second half of the season. As it stands, the Thunder should want the Timberwolves in the WCF… right?
Well, surprisingly, the Thunder won their season series against the Nuggets 3-1, while their series against the Timberwolves is a tie at 2-2. Even with Nikola Jokic playing, Oklahoma City seems to have Denver's number. They should be the easy choice … but there's a catch.
The Nuggets have consistently played their best ball in the playoffs. Jamal Murray and Jokic are known to elevate their play in the postseason. It would be better for the team to avoid the Nuggets altogether. The Timberwolves would be a better match, if only for their relative inexperience compared to the defending champions. Karl-Anthony Towns is also recovering from a torn meniscus and may not be at his peak if he does return.
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