When trying to predict who will be crowned Super Bowl 58 MVP, you cannot go wrong with Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. The player's own resume, plus the history of the award, would point any reasonable person in that direction, instead of, say, the direction of Isiah Pacheco.
After all, of the 58 previous winners (Harvey Martin and Randy White of the Dallas Cowboys split the award in Super Bowl 12), 32 of them have played the quarterback position. Of course, Mahomes has won the award twice already in his three Super Bowl appearances.
But these Chiefs are not the Chiefs of 2019, or even 2022. And while Mahomes still pulls off spectacular plays routinely, Kansas City's lead running back might be the key for Andy Reid and Co. team on Sunday.
Let's take a look at how the Chiefs offense has been operating lately, why the San Francisco 49ers defense might be in trouble, and why Pacheco will be the first running back to earn Super Bowl MVP honors since Terrell Davis back in the 1997 season.
Chiefs air attack looking deflated
The Chiefs finished the 2023 regular season sixth in passing yards per game. But especially as the season entered its final stages, much of the focus fell on the team's wide receivers and how poorly they were playing.
It seemed like week after week, a crucial mistake by Kadarius Toney or Marquez Valdes-Scantling had observers wondering if this KC offense was good enough.
The numbers don't lie. Of his 17 playoff games started, Patrick Mahomes has produced the third, fourth, and sixth worst efforts by passing yards in the 2023 postseason.
Tight end and Taylor Swift-dater Travis Kelce has been his excellent self, but the team's wide receivers simply aren't reliable. Rashee Rice exploded for 130 receiving yards against the Miami Dolphins, but his totals have dropped in two straight games.
Valdes-Scantling's 62-yard effort against the Buffalo Bills is the best performance outside of Rice and Kelce, and more than half of MVS' yards in that game came on a single play.
KC relying on Pacheco more
While the Chiefs passing attack has been limited, Pacheco has taken on a bigger role in the offense. He went over 100 yards twice in December, and is averaging 85 yards and a touchdown on the ground in the playoffs.
Pacheco leads all players in rushing yards this postseason, and only Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers and the Niners' Christian McCaffrey have averaged more yards per game on the ground (both have played two games to Pacheco's three.)
Too often, it seems that Mahomes trusts Kelce and little else in the passing game. San Francisco knows that too, and will have lineback Fred Warner to help cover Kelce.
In that scenario, Reid will lean on Pacheco to help keep his offense on schedule, which will give the Rutgers product ample opportunity to rack up the yards.
Chiefs ready to exploit 49ers weakness?
So Mahomes is throwing to an inconsistent bunch and Pacheco has served as a battering ram in recent weeks. Those throwing their weight behind the “Pacheco for MVP” train still have to worry about San Francisco's defense, no?
Worry might be overstating it.
As the NFC's top seed, the Niners have only played two games this postseason. In those two, their run defense has gotten absolutely gashed.
The Packers went for 136 yards on the ground, led by Aaron Jones' 108 yards. It got even worse for Kyle Shanahan's team the next week against the Detroit Lions, when it surrendered 182 yards via the rush.
Only the Chiefs (339) have allowed more rushing yards this postseason than the 49ers (318) and that's with an additional game played.
Defensive end Nick Bosa is strong against the run, but on the other side, Chase Young is known more for rushing the passer than setting the edge. Additionally, defensive tackle Arik Armstead is dealing with knee and foot injuries, and was limited in Wednesday's practice as a result.
The run defense suddenly looks like a major issue for the NFC champions.
Pacheco looking like an MVP?
If San Francisco's struggles to stop the run continue, and the Chiefs again rely heavily on their rushing attack to pace the offense, Patrick Mahomes might just have a modest day at the office.
In that case, Isiah Pacheco will be ready to seize the opportunity. Enough that he might just become Super Bowl 58 MVP Isiah Pacheco by game's end.
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