The biggest sporting event in the world takes place this weekend! The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the big game as they take on the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV. It's time to continue our NFL odds series with a 49ers-Chiefs prediction and pick.
The 49ers came up clutch against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship. Down 24-7 at the half, the Niners scored 20 unanswered points to take the lead in the second half and eventually won the game. Lions coach Dan Campbell had some questionable fourth-down decision that didn't go his way, but either way, the Niners played an excellent second half to propel them to the Super Bowl. The Niners have been one of the better NFC teams in the league over the last few seasons and Brock Purdy has a chance to insert his name in a conversation with two of the better QBs to ever live in Joe Montana and Steve Young with SB wins.
“The Chiefs is still the Chiefs.” There is no question about it. Despite overcoming the odds, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Chris Jones are back in the Super Bowl. Reid is establishing himself as one of the best coaches of all time and another ring helps his case. Mahomes and Kelce are the best duo in the league and find themselves connecting for big plays and touchdowns more often than not. They dominated the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship and the defense deserves a lot of credit. The Niners have arguably the best offensive weapons in the game so we will see if the Chiefs can continue to play stellar defense.
Here are the 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl LVIII NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Super Bowl LVIII Odds: 49ers-Chiefs Odds
San Francisco 49ers: -2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -130
Kansas City Chiefs: +2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +110
Over: 47.5 (-110)
Under: 47.5 (-110)
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Why The 49ers Could Cover The Spread/Win
First are foremost, this team needs to come out of the gates stronger than they have in their other two postseason games. The Niners have started slow, and as a result, saw them down big at halftime in both games. They found their spark in the second half, but if they go down big to the Chiefs then it's over, they will not come back from down 17 to Patrick Mahomes and this team. If you want to beat KC, you must play perfectly in all four quarters and in all three phases of the game. If the Niners start strong by scoring points and not allowing the Chiefs to find their rhythm, then the Niners have a chance to control this game for the majority of the contest.
This offense is special. They have talent at every position. We have a chance to see them open up the playbook as they have nothing else to hide. Christian McCaffery will continue to receive a bulk of the carries but getting Deebo Samuel the ball in open space is key for this offense. Samuel made some big-time plays in the second half against the Lions to help them inch back. Not to mention, Brandon Aiyuk and his incredible catch to set CMC up for another RedZone TD. SF must get star George Kittle involved early as well. The two best tight ends in the game are going head-to-head and the Niners feel that Kittle can do as much if not all of what Kelce can do in this type of environment.
All in all, the 49ers' success falls into the hands of Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. Jimmy Garoppolo was the QB the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl back in 2020. Purdy took over and ran away with the job. Purdy is an MVP candidate and has a chance to submit his name amongst all-time greats. The 24-year-old plays with a lot of maturity and if he protects the ball and plays mistake-free football then we could see the Niners score a ton of points.
On the defensive side, it's not going to be easy to contain Mahomes and Kelce but the Niners must have a plan in store to not let them take over. Whether it is double-teaming Kelce or not, they can't let him catch the ball in open space. He's the best in the game yet he still finds himself wide open a lot.
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Chiefs are going to have their moments in this game that will make you think they will find a way to win. The fact that Mahomes is an underdog yet again is questionable. A ton of people predicted the Ravens to beat the Chiefs and Mahomes and company made sure to make them all look like fools. You have to beat Mahomes when it matters in order to become the favorite, and well, nobody has done that besides Tom Brady and Joe Burrow.
Andy Reid has a plan in store to keep the Niners' defense guessing. Isaiah Pacheco will carry the ball a ton early in the game to open up the play-action game. We should see Mahomes connect with Kelce and Rashee Rice all night long. Rice can make sneaky plays and should be a big factor in the offensive game plan.
In their last two matchups, Shanahan's offense ranks in the 71st and 91st percentile against Steve Spagnuolo. He has seen success but Spaguolo is coaching one of the better defenses he has ever coached. I expect the Chiefs' defense to cover the Niners' skill positions well enough to force Purdy to make plays with his legs. If they are forcing Purdy to make tough decisions rather than easy check-downs or screens, then he may struggle in the big game.
Final 49ers-Chiefs Prediction & Pick
This isn't an easy prediction to make. I actually expect the Chiefs to win this game. They are the more experienced team and even though the Niners roster is better on paper, the Chiefs coaching staff excels in this atmosphere. With that said, the +2.5 spread is dangerous to take so buying a half-point to +3 for the Chiefs is the call to make to be safe. However, I only see Mahomes lifting his 3rd Lombardi Trophy along with the MVP to take down the Niners. Chiefs get it done again.
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Final 49ers-Chief Prediction & Pick: Chiefs ML (+110)