Friday night in Anaheim was something of a fever dream for Boston Red Sox fans. They watched as their team got off to a 5-1 lead, made two horrific errors that immediately preceded a game-tying grand slam, then retook, conceded and retook the lead once more. An 8-6 win over the Los Angeles Angels gave the Red Sox their fifth straight win, the longest active streak in MLB, yet hardly anyone was celebrating.
Shortstop Trevor Story, in just the third year of a contract that could extend through 2028, was starting to become the vocal leader of the team. His defense had been spectacular through the first eight games and his bat was finally coming around as well. Then he dove after a Mike Trout topspin liner in the hole and disaster struck.
Story landed hard on his left shoulder, immediately rolling over and writhing in pain. He was taken out of the game and although the results of his imaging have yet to be reported, it seems widely acknowledged that he'll be out for a significant amount of time. On a night when the Red Sox hit five home runs and pulled out a close game on the road, it still felt like a net loss.
Yet even with the Story injury looming like a dark cloud, Boston is now 6-2, tied for first in the division with the New York Yankees. Can they turn this hot start into a meaningful rebound as a franchise, even in a season where ownership seemingly expects not to compete? Here's what we've learned and what it could all mean as the year rolls along.
Red Sox can actually pitch
Coming into the season, seemingly every name penciled into the starting rotation came with a question mark. Brayan Bello, fresh off an extension, cratered at the end of 2023. Nick Pivetta was one of the best pitchers in the league from May onward, but historically had struggled to stick in the rotation. And the trio of Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck, all 28 years old, had yet to establish themselves full-time as big league starters.
Yet so far, the results for all except Bello, ironically seen as the surest thing among the staff, have been fantastic. Red Sox starters lead MLB in ERA (1.90), FIP (2.57), K/9 (10.76) and BB/9 (1.29). New pitching coach Andrew Bailey has emphasized a greater reliance on off-speed pitches and so far, it seems to be working wonders.
Is it reasonable to expect the Sox to be the best starting staff in baseball for another 154 games? Probably not, but at the very least, they seem to have squashed the notion their pitching would doom them no matter what the offense did. Granted, it's early and they've only faced the AL West, but it seems clear whatever the Red Sox are cooking up in their pitching lab is working.
Jarren Duran is a star
If someone told you Ronald Acuña Jr. was hitting to a .944 OPS/179 OPS+ through eight games, had stolen an MLB-best six bases and had just hit his first home run of the season to give his team the lead in the eighth inning, wouldn't your response be something like, “Yep, just Ronald Acuña being his MVP self yet again?”
Well, that stat line applies to the one and only Jarren Duran, who just made his first Opening Day start as a big leaguer despite playing parts of four seasons. The breakout started to come last summer, but a toe injury derailed Duran's season in mid-August. But now Duran isn't just repeating the success he had in 2023, he's taken his game to a whole new level.
The stolen bases are the most encouraging part. We knew Duran was really fast (96th percentile sprint speed in 2023), but with 24 robberies in 102 games a year ago, we weren't sure if he was capable of competing for a stolen base crown. It seems entirely possible that could happen given the pace he's on to start 2023 and beyond that, it's clear the game is totally different for the opposition when Duran is on the bases. His game-breaking speed and aggression lead to errors and lapses in mental judgment, giving the Red Sox a tremendous weapon they haven't had in years past.
Boston's rookies aren't carrying weight
A key ingredient to this season in Boston was going to be how their most inexperienced position players responded to their chances to be legitimate big league starters for the first time. Specifically, Enmanuel Valdez, Cedanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu were all going to break camp with the team and be given an opportunity to earn their right to start for the Red Sox.
It's still early, but the returns thus far have been discouraging. Rafaela has been the brightest spot of the three, dazzling with his defense in the series against the Oakland Athletics, but in addition to his inexcusable drop in center field Friday night, he's struggled to find his way on base. Valdez hit one massive home run against the Seattle Mariners, but has done little else with the bat and simply cannot catch the ball on defense. And Abreu hasn't hit at all in either Spring Training or the regular season.
In previous seasons, the Red Sox have had enough veteran talent to allow their rookies to cut their teeth–it famously happened in 2007 with Dustin Pedroia, who was awful for six weeks and then became the best player on a World Series team. But because the team hasn't spent the money to supplement this roster with veteran talent, the onus is on these young guns to prove they can carry the load. And that only becomes more crucial if Story is out long-term.
Trevor Story's injury is ultimate test
All the positive momentum the Red Sox built through their first eight games can come crumbling down if they aren't able to stay afloat through whatever amount of time Story misses. It's more than losing a reliable piece in the middle of the diamond, because Story has been through this so many times already. It's gut-wrenching to see a veteran go through struggles and injuries, commit himself to his rehab and to earning the value of his contract extension, just to get hurt all over again.
And once again, the reality is that in the past, the Red Sox would have moved mountains to find a suitable replacement for Story if they knew he would miss a significant chunk of the season. But because of self-imposed budget restrictions, this Boston team doesn't seem to be in a position to take on another premium player salary.
So whether it's Pablo Reyes stepping up big-time, Vaughn Grissom getting some run at short when he comes back from injury, Rafaela moving around the diamond instead of sticking to center field or David Hamilton doing better in his next call-up, the Sox are going to need to find production from an unlikely source. But unfortunately for Sox fans, no one will be surprised if the Story injury is the blow that derails this exciting start to the year. They knew all along this 2024 experiment was built on shaky foundations.
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