Prior to the New York Knicks' Thursday matchup with the Indiana Pacers, it was revealed that Julius Randle’s dislocated shoulder would be re-evaluated in two to three weeks. No final decision has been made regarding in-season surgery, but all reports so far indicate it is probably unnecessary.
The operative word here is “re-evaluated.” With the All-Star break less than two weeks away, it's almost certain Randle will remained sidelined through the league's midseason showcase in Indianapolis. So, what exactly lies ahead for the Knicks before then?
Knicks opponents over the next two weeks
The last game before the All-Star break is February 14th, which is approximately two weeks from Thursday's announcement. All-Star break is perfectly timed for the Knicks, as it allows Randle an extra week to rehabilitate his shoulder without missing any games in the third week of his recovery process. In other words, he'll get three weeks of rest while missing only two weeks of games.
Following an incredibly dramatic win against the Pacers on Thursday night, New York plays six games before the All-Star break. Those games are against the Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks, Pacers, Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic.
The first four of those six games will be played at home. Then New York hits the road for three games in five nights. Three of their next six opponents are .500 or worse, and three have winning records. The Knicks are 18-5 at home and 14-12 on the road. Further, the Knicks are 10-16 against winning teams and 22-1 against teams who are .500 or worse.
How Julius Randle's injury impacts New York's expectations
So, how does Randle's injury impact New York's ceiling this season? The Knicks entered the playoffs last as the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. Considering the lack of personnel changes prior to this season, it is fair to assume that New York expected a similar outcome coming into 2023-24.
But goal posts move throughout the season, and this is as true for New York as any other team in the NBA. The Knicks are presently in third place in the Eastern Conference, and trail the second-seeded Milwaukee Bucks by only half a game. They have two All-Stars and completed a franchise-changing trade for OG Anunoby that resulted in a 14-2 record in January.
So, what should the Knicks expect to accomplish now? Brunson’s continued ascension should certainly contribute to updated expectations. His outright dominance on Thursday night, leading the short-handed Knicks to victory with a brilliant 40-point performance, was flat-out jaw dropping. Anunoby's presence should also help New York solidify a place in the upper-echelon of the Eastern Conference. But the Knicks still need Randle.
While his injury is less than ideal, all should be well if Randle returns shortly after the All-Star break. And if Brunson keeps up his strong play—and the Knicks keep getting contributions from guys like Donte DiVincenzo, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Precious Achiuwa—they shouldn’t even skip a beat.
But looking at things more conservatively, even if New York can simply tread water—winning three of their next six games—they should still be in position to avoid the play-in tournament. The Knicks are currently 6.5 games ahead of the seventh-seeded Miami Heat, which is a comfortable lead at this point in the season.
Other Eastern Conference factors to consider
New York is getting some help elsewhere, as well. There is absolutely no place in sports to root for a player’s injury, and that is by no means what’s being done here. But 76ers center and reigning MVP Joel Embiid suffered a lateral meniscus injury in his left knee Tuesday night. And while speculating about a timeline for his return is pointless, one thing is nearly certain: The injury will negatively impact Philadelphia’s seeding in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
The Sixers are currently one game behind the Knicks in the Eastern Conference standings. So, that's one fewer team with which New York has to concern itself regarding seeding.
Ultimately, the Knicks' fate should be in their own hands. Brunson has been great, but no player has ever won a championship on his own. Randle will play a big part of whatever success the Knicks experience this season. Hopefully he's back at full-strength sooner than later. And if that's the case, then the sky is the limit for New York.
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