Eight of the best mashers from yesterday, today, and tomorrow will battle in today's Home Run Derby from Dodgers Stadium in Los Angeles, California. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a home run derby prediction and pick.

 

 

Last year, Pete Alonso came into this derby having won the previous contest in 2019 (there was no Home Run Derby in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic). Alonso went on to take the 2021 Home Run Derby becoming back-to-back champions. Additionally, he won the Home Run Derby by defeating Salvador Perez in Round 1, Juan Soto in Round 2, and Trey Mancini in Round 3. Only Soto will return to challenge him in this year's contest.

The brackets play out like a tournament. It will pit Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies against the legendary Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals. Also, the first round will see Soto battle Jose Ramirez of the Cleveland Guardians. Likewise, we will see Corey Seager, currently a member of the Texas Rangers, returning to his former home in Chavez Ravine to take on the rookie Julio Rodriguez, who plays for the Seattle Mariners. The last first-round matchup pits defending champion Pete Alonso of the New York Mets against Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Atlanta Braves.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Home Run Derby odds:

Home Run Derby: Home Run Derby Odds  

Pete Alonso: (+185)

Kyle Schwarber (+280)

Juan Soto (+600)

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+750)

Julio Rodriguez (+850)

Corey Seager (+1000)

Jose Ramirez (+1600)

Albert Pujols (+2400)

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Home Run Derby – Most Home Runs Hit in Round 1

Last year, there was an influx of home runs hit in the first round. The game was at Coors Field, which gave the ball a little more of a push when clobbered into the air. Dodgers Stadium is not a hitters park. However, many participants have fond memories of hitting at Dodgers Stadium. Pujols used to torture the Dodgers on an annual basis at Chavez Ravine. Seager used to mash homers at Dodgers Stadium all the time as a member of the Dodgers. Kyle Schwarber and Acuna Jr. can mash it up in this venue, thus providing an interesting scenario where the first round may see plenty of action. Expect some balls to fly out of the yard. Then, look for some familiar names to rack them up as the race to the next round heats up with each swing. Seager is the Dodgers Stadium veteran so going to go with him. 

Final Pick: Corey Seager (+850)

Home Run Derby – Longest Home Run 

The longest home run will come from someone with utmost power. The betting rate is 491 feet right now, and that seems possible. However, none of the eight can hit that far unless the park is Coors Field. Schwarber has the power to destroy the ball. Also, Seager knows the stadium well. But the other eight are significant question marks. Pujols probably could have done it ten years ago. The wildcard in play is Julio Rodriguez. He has blasted 450-foot shots and is powering the Mariners on their current 14-game winning streak. Can he come out of nowhere and become the third rookie to not just win the Home Derby, but also provide the longest home run? Ultimately, I don't feel that any of the hitters will amass the goal. 

Home Run Derby -Longest Home Run: Under 491.5 (-112)

Home Run Derby -League Winner

The best way to do this is by going through each round. Schwarber will take down Pujols in round one to set up a matchup with Soto, who will edge out Ramirez to earn another second-round matchup. On the other side of the bracket, Seager will take down the rookie Rodriguez at his former home. Your defending champion Alonso will make quick work of Acuna, setting up two juicy second-round matchups. Schwarber will send Soto home and clobber some deep shots to right field. Alonso will fall to Seager in the second round, thus ending his reign as the champion. It will set up the showdown between Schwarber and Seager.

It is tempting to pick Seager to win here to take the Home Run Derby in front of the Dodgers' faithful. However, Schwarber has displayed raw power over the last year and is on pace to shatter his former high of 38 home runs (set in 2019) and could very well reach 50 home runs if he does not suffer any injuries. He is the pick to win the 2022 Home Run Derby, due to his raw ability to read the ball and mash it in every direction. Schwarber can hit dingers anywhere in the park and at any speed. Subsequently, that is why he is my pick to win this year's Home Run Derby. 

Home Run Derby -League Winner: Kyle Schwarber (+280)