The second day of this season’s play-in tournament will feature the San Antonio Spurs versus the Memphis Grizzlies. Both teams are fighting for the ninth seed, which will give them the opportunity to eventually compete for the eight seed.

Before we get to the predictions of this matchup, let’s first assess how both teams got here.

The Grizzlies have been fighting for the eight seed throughout the regular season. The team actually started the season well, but injuries prevented them from going on a run. Still, Ja Morant is having a superb season, averaging 19.1 points, 7.4 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game. Morant’s confidence has impressively gone through the roof, even claiming he’s a top five point guards in the league. 

On the other side, the Spurs continue to have a down year—at least in their standards. They’re a franchise that always does things the right way; hence why there won’t be tanking on their side. Led by one of the greatest coaches of all time in Greg Popovich, the Spurs find themselves on the 10th seed, on the brink of elimination. For them to make it to the playoffs, they have no choice but to win this game. 

Unlike the Spurs, the Grizzlies had a chance to claim the eighth seed and face the Los Angeles Lakers. However, Stephen Curry was just too much for them, as the Warriors put the Grizzlies on the ninth seed. The Grizz can still redeem themselves, but it’s not going to be as simple as a walk in the park.

Here’s what could go down in Wednesday’s battle for the ninth seed in the western conference: 

4. The Grizzlies have the advantage health wise

The Grizzlies have the tie-breaker against the Spurs (2-1) this season, but they both barely faced each other at full strength. At this point, the Grizzlies are relatively healthy, and the Spurs are far from it.

The Spurs have had several guys in and out of the lineup. It’s also important to point out that the Spurs no longer have LaMarcus Aldridge, who was with the team when they faced the Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies are healthy and ready to go. They had a good run versus the Warriors and if Dillon Brooks did not foul out, who knows what would have happened. They enter Wednesday’s game almost complete and with their core intact. 

3. The Grizzlies can defeat the Spurs but there’s a huge “IF”

A couple of reasons why the Grizzlies faltered against the Warriors were because Morant didn’t really punish the Warriors, lack of consistency from role players, and their first half performance. For the Grizzlies to come up big against the Spurs, Morant needs to impose his will and so do Jaren Jackson, Brooks and the rest.

On Sunday’s game against the Warriors, Morant was limited to only 16 points on 7-of-21 shooting–including 1-of-6 from the 3-point line. The Grizzlies go as far as Morant can take them. 

As for the Spurs, the best way they can contain the Grizzlies is if to lock in on defense. DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray and hopefully Patty Mills can pick up the scoring load for San Antonio. But for them to win, they must make sure to hold Morant the same way the Warriors did. They also have Popovich on their side, who is best known to construct an effective game plan for playoff matchups. 

2. Battle of who can carry the offensive load of their team

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DeRozan is averaging 21.6 points, 4.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game this season and is the best player for the Spurs. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies will rely heavily on Morant—who the team should center their offense around.

When these two struggle, their teams suffer more than usual, so it’s going to be a battle of who can lead the offense between these two. Both have sufficient role players around them, but ultimately, Morant and DeRozan have to be on top of their games if they want their teams to succeed. 

1. The winner of this game will likely not get a reward

Sure, winning this game is important, but who wants to face Steph Curry or LeBron James in the next game in a do-or-die matchup? This is likely one of the worst rewards of all time, but that’s just how this season has played out.

A lot will put their bets against the winner of this game, especially versus the Warriors or the Lakers. If we’re completely being honest here, the odds of one of these two beating either the Warriors or the Lakers are slim.