Nate Oats and the Alabama Crimson Tide take a trip to Starkville to take on Chris Jans’ Mississippi State Bulldogs in this SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Alabama-Mississippi State prediction and pick.

Nate Oats brings the Tide to The Hump in Starkville winners of four straight. After a narrow 3-point victory on the road at Vanderbilt, Alabama caught fire and ran South Carolina out of the gym. The Tide are firing on all cylinders with Mark Sears playing like a true 1st-team All-American in Tuscaloosa. 

Standing in the way, Chris Jans and the Bulldogs are coming off the biggest win in the history of The Hump. Knocking off #5 Tennessee put the country on notice — these Bulldogs are not to be taken lightly. SEC 1st-teamer Tolu Smith is back healthy and boy is he back in a big way. With the emergence of sharpshooting freshman phenom Josh Hubbard, Mississippi State packs an offensive punch they have not had in recent years.

Can The Hump provide more magic or will Alabama do what Tennessee could not?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Alabama-Mississippi State Odds

Alabama: -1.5 (-104)

Moneyline: -114

Mississippi State: +1.5 (-118)

Moneyline: -105

Over: 155.5 (-110)

Under: 155.5 (-110)

How to Watch Alabama vs. Mississippi State

Time: 8:30 pm ET/ 5:30 pm PT

TV: SECN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread

When you have an All-American you always have a chance. That is exactly what Alabama has in Mark Sears. In the past three games, Sears has shot 12-18 (66.6%) from long range. Shooting like that is almost required to beat this Mississippi State defense. We just watched Mississippi State allow Zakai Zeigler to score 26 points shooting 4-9 from three. Based on the numbers and what the Bulldogs just let Zeigler do, Sears may be in for a huge night. 

Additionally, another member of the Tide backcourt who has found their stroke is Aaron Estrada. Scoring 17 points while shooting 3/4 from three against South Carolina, Estrada is coming off his best shooting night since late November. After a close call on the road against an inferior team, the 2nd half-offensive explosion is exactly what the Tide needed before a trip to Starkville. 

However, I have yet to mention the most important factor — tempo. Where Alabama’s adjusted tempo is 72.5 (40th fastest), Mississippi State’s is 68.8 (168th fastest). We saw the Tide get out and run in the 2nd half against South Carolina which blew the doors off the game. Alabama is going to do everything in its power to speed this game up. In terms of guard play and dictating the pace of play, Alabama has a clear edge with the All-American candidate in Mark Sears.

Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread

Significantly, Alabama has played only two true road games. Exactly four weeks ago the Tide played at Creighton, losing 82-85 despite 7-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner only playing 24 minutes due to an ankle. Recently, Alabama narrowly defeated Vanderbilt in Nashville by just three points. The only two games the Tide have won outside the state of Alabama were Vanderbilt and an 8-point win over an Oregon team without 7-0 Nate Bittle and 6-11 N’Faly Dante. 

Alarmingly, Alabama has turned the ball over 31 times in the first two conference games. Vanderbilt is forcing turnovers at a 16.4% rate and stealing at a rate of 9.4%. South Carolina with rates of 17.3% and 8.1%, respectively. Mississippi State is a different breed, with a turnover rate of 19.2% and stealing at a rate of 12.8%. In the past two games, the duo of D.J. Jeffries and Cam Matthews have combined for 12 steals. 

In Tolu Smith’s three games played, he is averaging 17.3 points per game, 5.6 rebounds per game, and has shot 20/24 (83.3%) from the free throw line. Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka burned through 10 fouls and got bullied all game. With Alabama’s Mohamed Wague out now due to injury, an already struggling Alabama frontcourt takes a hit. 

Lastly, I think it is important to note that Cam Matthews was on the bench in foul trouble during the majority of Tennessee’s high-press run. Josh Hubbard is not being put in a position for success when he continuously receives the entry pass in the coffin corner. Once Matthews came back, you saw he was the first recipient of the entry pass before advancing up the court. I predict this time around they will be much more prepared to deal with an Alabama press. 

Final Alabama-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick

So far, the road has been where KenPom's top 50 teams go to die. Teams ranked top 10 on the road against a top 100 opponent are 12-12 (50%) on the season, with North Carolina being 3-0. After the biggest home win in recent memory, you best believe The Hump is going to be an absolute madhouse for a Saturday night game. 

Alabama’s road woes combined with their recent turnover issues have me liking the home side in this one. Give me the Bulldogs, bully ball!

Final Alabama-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Mississippi State ML -105