PFL Week 5: Clay Collard vs. Mads Burnell kicks off the main card with a fight between Antonio Carlos Junior and Alex Polizzi in the light heavyweight division. Carlos Junior made up for lost time after sitting out the 2023 PFL season with a first-round rear-naked choke submission at PFL 2 meanwhile, Polizzi didn’t have a successful PFL season debut when he was finished by TKO in the first round as he came into his second fight in the PFL SmartCage. With that said, check out our PFL odds series for our Carlos Junior-Polizzi prediction and pick.

Antonio Carlos Junior (16-5) is the former light heavyweight PFL champion back in 2021 and was on his way to becoming a back-to-back champion before an injury derailed his 2022 season taking him out of the playoffs. Now, after sitting out the 2023 season Carlos Junior made up for lost time by submitting Simon Biyong in the first round. Now, he will be looking to secure his spot in the playoffs for a third-straight time when he takes on Alex Polizzi this Friday night.

Alex Polizzi (10-4) came into his PFL regular season debut on the heels of back-to-back losses only to drop his first fight in the PFL SmartCage against the 2023 PFL Champion Impa Kasanganay who knocked him out in the first round. Now, Polizzi will look to finally right the ship and get back on track when he takes on the 2021 PFL light heavyweight champion Antonio Carlos Junior on Friday night.

Here are the PFL 5 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

PFL 5 Odds: Antonio Carlos Jr-Alex Polizzi Odds

Antonio Carlos Junior: -355

Alex Polizzi: +280

Over 1.5 rounds: -155

Under 1.5 rounds: +125

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Why Antonio Carlos Junior Will Win

Antônio Carlos Júnior is set to face Alex Polizzi at PFL 5 this Friday. Carlos Júnior has a clear edge in this matchup, primarily due to his superior grappling skills.

Carlos Júnior boasts an impressive professional MMA record of 16-5, with 13 of his victories coming by way of submission. His Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background, highlighted by numerous accolades in the sport, makes him a formidable opponent on the ground. Training with American Top Team, one of the premier MMA gyms, has further honed his skills, allowing him to dominate in grappling exchanges.

Carlos Júnior’s recent performances in the PFL have been stellar, including a first-round submission victory over Simon Biyong in April 2024. His ability to control the fight and capitalize on his opponent’s mistakes will be crucial against Polizzi, who has struggled against high-level competition.

Antônio Carlos Júnior’s grappling prowess, recent form, and experience in high-stakes matches make him the favorite to secure a victory over Alex Polizzi at PFL 5.

Why Alex Polizzi Will Win

Alex Polizzi is set to face Antônio Carlos Júnior at PFL 5, and Polizzi can secure a victor with his well-rounded skill set and resilience.

Polizzi, with a professional record of 10-4, has demonstrated versatility in his fighting style, with five wins by submission and three by knockout. His ability to adapt and finish fights in various ways makes him a dangerous opponent for Carlos Júnior, who primarily relies on his grappling.

One of Polizzi’s strengths is his wrestling background, which can neutralize Carlos Júnior’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Polizzi’s collegiate wrestling experience provides him with the tools to defend against takedowns and maintain control in grappling exchanges. This wrestling base, combined with his striking power, gives him a balanced approach to the fight.

Despite recent setbacks, Polizzi has shown resilience and the ability to learn from his losses. His determination to bounce back and improve his game is evident in his training and preparation. Polizzi’s striking, particularly his knockout power, could exploit Carlos Júnior’s sometimes questionable striking defense.

Alex Polizzi’s well-rounded skill set, wrestling background, and striking power position him well to overcome Antônio Carlos Júnior at PFL 5. His ability to adapt and capitalize on his opponent’s weaknesses will be crucial in securing a victory.

Final Antonio Carlos Jr-Alex Polizzi Prediction & Pick

This should be a great scrap to kick off the main card on Friday night between these two light heavyweights. Carlos Junior will look to secure his spot in the PFL playoffs yet again meanwhile, Polizzi will be looking to finally get back in the win column while scoring the massive upset and securing his first trip to the PFL playoffs this Friday. Unfortunately, this is yet another tough matchup for Polizzi taking on a grappling ace like Carlos Junior. Ultimately, Carlos Junior should make this look as easy as he did against Simon Biyong and submit Polizzi inside two rounds.

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Final Antonio Carlos Jr-Alex Polizzi Prediction & Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior (-355), Under 1.5 Rounds (+125)