Ranked first overall in the nation, Tommy Lloyd’s Arizona Wildcats travel across the country to Indianapolis to take on Matt Painter’s third-ranked Purdue Boilermakers. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Arizona-Purdue prediction and pick.

A potential Final Four preview in mid-December? Sign me up. If I had to describe Arizona’s season so far with just one word, it would be dominance. You can argue that no one cashed in the portal like Tommy Lloyd and Arizona did. North Carolina transfer Caleb Love (14.1ppg) and San Diego State transfer Keshad Johnson (12.6ppg) lead the Wildcats in scoring. Johnson also leads Arizona in rebounds per game (6.9). The added talent mixed with an elite returning core has resulted in, you guessed it, dominance. 

Similarly, Matt Painter and Zach Edey have the Boilermakers physically overwhelming foes. Purdue, like usual, did not hit the transfer portal as hard as most programs. But their one addition, Southern Illinois’ Lance Jones, has been instrumental to this team’s success. The added perimeter physicality and veteran presence could prove to be the missing piece for Matt Painter and company. 

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? Well, we will not have to wait much longer to find out.  

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Arizona-Purdue Odds

Arizona: -1.5 (-102)

Purdue: +1.5 (-120)

Over: 158.5 (-115)

Under: 158.5 (-105)

How to Watch Arizona vs. Purdue 

Time: 4:30 pm ET/ 1:30 pm PT

TV: Peacock

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Arizona Will Cover The Spread

Both teams rank top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency, but they accomplish those numbers with different styles. Defensively, Purdue ranks bottom 75 in the nation in both steal rate and forced turnover rate. Zach Edey controls the paint with drop coverage while the guards keep everything in front. Kylan Boswell, Caleb Love, and Pelle Larsson should be comfortable around the perimeter all night long. 

With Edey down low, shooting well from beyond the arc is almost required. Alabama, while less equipped in the front court, made 19 three-pointers and still lost. Similar to Alabama, the Wildcats have the talent to explode from three. Kylan Boswell might just be one of the best shooters in the nation, the sophomore is shooting an insane 52.5% (21/40). We just saw Mark Sears go off for 35 — if there is anyone who can match that, it is Boswell. 

In addition to Arizona having the individual scoring talent, they have been battle-tested away from home already. I am not sure if I could imagine a tougher second game of the season than playing at Cameron Indoor. Unlike Houston, Arizona has put itself in uncomfortable situations and still sits at the top. This Arizona team is playing with no fear and riding the most momentum in the country, a dangerous combination. 

Why Purdue Will Cover The Spread

A major piece of Arizona’s success has come from dominating the boards. The Wildcats have been able to physically overwhelm opponents into submission, just like Purdue does. The numbers suggest a slight rebounding edge for Arizona, but with Zach Edey on the floor, I will settle for a stalemate. Arizona’s only allowing teams to rebound 17% of their misses so far. I predict this number to be north of 25% for Purdue. 

Secondly, Purdue currently ranks 13th in team free throw rate. You can attribute that solely to Zach Edey. Edey ranks number one overall in fouls drawn, averaging 10.6 fouls drawn per forty minutes. Those are crazy numbers. How have previous front courts this year faired guarding Edey?

The Alabama frontcourt of Grant Nelson, Mohamed Wague, and Nick Pringle combined for 12 fouls. Each member of the Northwestern front court, Matthew Nicholson, Blake Preston, and Luke Hunger, all fouled out. Tennessee’s Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awake both fouled out. Marquette’s Oso Ighodaro and Ben Gold had 4 each. It is brutal to watch, but you get the point.

In summary, at least two of Arizona’s Oumar Ballo, Keshad Johnson, and Motiejus Krivas will be hampered by foul trouble. It is inevitable, accept it. The late-game foul trouble is surely to impact Arizona’s rebounding domination, something they have yet to deal with.

Final Arizona-Purdue Prediction & Pick

Now it is important to remember this game is not being played at Mackey Arena. Obviously, there should be more Purdue fans — but this will not feel like Mackey. According to KenPom’s home court rankings, Mackey Arena ranks 20th in terms of home court advantage. In a game of elites as we have here, that little stuff matters. 

In a matchup that seems to be a stalemate, I will take the team with the easiest path to consistent inside scoring. For me, that team is Purdue. Give me the Boilers in a close one. 

Final Arizona-Purdue Prediction & Pick: Purdue +1.5 (-120)