Ranked 10th overall in the nation, Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears head to Charlotte to take on Jon Scheyer’s 21st-ranked Duke Blue Devils. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Baylor-Duke prediction and pick.

The Blue Devils are back on their feet winning back-to-back games after losing to Arkansas and Georgia Tech. Baylor comes in off their first defeat of the season to Michigan State, and an ugly one at that. Interestingly, Michigan State is currently Duke’s only Quad 1 win in the NET ratings. Do not be mistaken though — the team that played Duke was not the starving dog in desperate need of a win like the Spartans were against Baylor.

Both Scott Drew and Jon Scheyer have a healthy balance of youth and veterans. The point guard matchup between the two senior leaders, Baylor’s RayJ Dennis and Duke’s Jeremy Roach is going to be electric. Look out for the athletic forward matchup between 6-9 Jalen Bridges and 6-9 Mark Mitchell. Both Drew and Scheyer are used to having a matchup advantage at the four with those two, their matchup might be a sneaky factor in this one. 

Two squads that match up fairly well, both in need of a quality win before conference play starts. What better place to host a matchup like this than the mecca itself, Madison Square Garden?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

College Basketball Odds: Baylor-Duke Odds

Baylor: +1 (-105)

Duke: -1 (-115)

Over: 154 (-110)

Under: 154 (-110)

How to Watch Baylor vs. Duke 

Time: 7:00 pm ET/ 4:00 pm PT

TV: ESPN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Baylor Will Cover The Spread

Alright folks, familiarize yourself with the name Ja’Kobe Walter. The 6-5 freshman burst onto the scene on opening night against Auburn and has not looked back. Walter has spearheaded the three-point shooting barrage that has Baylor ranked 1st nationally in 3-point percentage (44.6%). Five out of the six most-played players for Baylor shoot 40% or higher from outside. The only player out of the six that does not is 7-0 center Yves Missi. 

Secondly, it is important to understand where this game is being played and the implications. Madison Square Garden has been referred to as “Cameron North” by Duke fans. It is safe to assume Duke will have a larger contingent of fans than Baylor at the game. But, here’s the catch — Baylor already played in New York twice this year. Just four weeks ago Baylor beat Florida and Oregon State at the Barclays Center. I predict neither team to have any sort of advantage from the location despite a few more Duke fans. 

Lastly, the most notable chink in the Duke defense is their assist rate. The Blue Devils are allowing 56.6% of made field goals to be assisted, which ranks 301st nationally. Combine an offense with elite shooting and a defense that struggles with ball movement and you have a path to victory. 

Why Duke Will Cover The Spread

Initially, the numbers do not suggest the Bears have many holes. One of those holes comes around the rim with their interior defense. Regarding point distribution, Baylor allows the 47th most points from two-point range (55.9% of total points). This plays right into Duke’s offensive scheme, as their two highest players in usage rate are 7-0 Kyle Filipowski (30.0%) and 6-9 Mark Mitchell (24.3%). Combine an offense that ranks seventh nationally in turnover rate (13.1%) with Duke’s inside-out offensive scheme and we should see clean offense. 

Secondly, the Blue Devils rate 3rd nationally in the following two categories — steal rate (6.1%) and defensive rebounding rate (18.5%). One of Baylor’s most efficient categories is their offensive rebounding rate at 36.1%. With Baylor boasting the best 3-point percentage in the nation, offensive rebound kick outs are lethal. 

Kyle Filipowski currently ranks as the 17th-best defensive rebounder in the nation. Importantly, Filipowski has only committed more than three fouls twice — against Arizona and Michigan State. He committed four fouls each in those two games, yet still played over thirty minutes. In summary, Duke and Filipowski should be able to neutralize Baylor’s offensive rebounding advantage for nearly the entire game.

Final Baylor-Duke Prediction & Pick

A spot like this for Baylor, coming off a blowout loss as your first of the season, is hard to read. Will the Bears bounce back with intensity or was the team exposed a bit? I tend to fall somewhere in the middle. While I think Baylor will fight tooth and nail, I do not think the team 3 3-point percentage of 44.6% is sustainable. 

I predict the combination of Duke’s offensive inside-out style and their ability to defensive rebound will be the key. On a neutral floor with squads that match up athletically, I will take the team with the path to a more consistent paint offense over forty minutes. 

Final Baylor-Duke Prediction & Pick: Duke -1 (-115)