The Baylor Bears take on the TCU Horned Frogs. Check out our college football odds series for our Baylor TCU prediction and pick. Find how to watch Baylor TCU.

The Baylor Bears and TCU Horned Frogs have a very contentious rivalry. These schools used to be part of the old Southwest Conference and would knock heads on a regular basis. In the Big 12, though, this battle has become even more fierce for a few very obvious reasons. In the 2014 college football season, TCU and Baylor were both battling for a College Football Playoff spot. The teams played a memorable 61-58 game won by Baylor. Both teams thought they were going to make the playoff on the final weekend of the season, but Ohio State was selected instead with the fourth and final seed in the first-ever playoff. It was a bitter moment for both schools, which were at the top of the Big 12 a decade ago. Baylor coach Art Briles ran into off-field scandals, while TCU began to lose steam after a strong 2017 season under program icon Gary Patterson.

Then came a new chapter of success for these two schools. In 2021, Baylor rebounded to win the Big 12 championship and win the Sugar Bowl under current coach Dave Aranda. The next season, in 2022, TCU — under Sonny Dykes, in his first year in charge of the program — got off the canvas and made a stunning run all the way to the national championship game, beating Jim Harbaugh and Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal. These two football schools have found ways to stay relevant over the past decade, and yet for all they have achieved, this year has been a disaster in both Waco and Fort Worth. Baylor will definitely miss a bowl game. TCU is likely to miss a bowl game. TCU could beat Baylor here to keep its bowl hopes alive, but even if the Frogs handle the Bears, they will have to win at Oklahoma next week to make a postseason game.

Here are the Baylor-TCU College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College Football Odds: Baylor-TCU Odds

Baylor Bears: +12.5 (-110)

TCU Horned Frogs: -12.5 (-110)

Over: 58.5 (-105)

Under: 58.5 (-115)

How To Watch Baylor vs TCU

Time: 3:30 pm ET / 12:30 pm PT

TV: Big 12 Network, ESPN Plus

Stream: fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread

The Bears are not a good team, but neither is TCU. Baylor has had a horrible season, but TCU hasn't been much better. For all the many flaws the Bears have, TCU is not an opponent which is likely to expose Baylor to the fullest possible extent. This is a rivalry game with a big grudge-match flavor, exactly the kind of street fight which is close and tense all the way. Given that TCU is favored by nearly two touchdowns, there's a very reasonable chance Baylor can and will cover the spread. Baylor might deserve to be a 12.5-point dog, but TCU does not deserve to be a 12.5-point favorite.

Why TCU Could Cover the Spread

The Baylor defense cratered against Kansas State last week. Baylor coach Dave Aranda has lost the plot this season and has simply failed to create any appreciable degree of quality. TCU might be in bad shape, but Baylor is orders of magnitude worse. TCU also gets this game at home. Baylor's defense simply won't be able to keep this game close.

Final Baylor-TCU Prediction & Pick

The laws of betting include this word of wisdom: Never trust bad teams to win money for you. Would you trust either of these teams? You shouldn't. Stay away and wait for a live-betting angle.

Final Baylor-TCU Prediction & Pick: Baylor +12.5