The Duke Blue Devils are set to face the North Carolina Tar Heels this weekend. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Duke North Carolina prediction, odds, and pick.

Duke beat Gonzaga earlier in the season in what was an elite performance. The Blue Devils showed to college basketball odds experts that they had a national championship ceiling. They looked like a title favorite when they beat last season's national runner-up. However, Duke hasn't come especially close to replicating that level of performance in the next two and a half months. The Blue Devils have played sloppy basketball and have gotten very little perimeter shooting, which has enabled opposing defenses to clamp down on Paolo Banchero, regarded by many as an NBA draft top-five pick.

When you consider your Duke North Carolina prediction, you need to look at how shaky the Blue Devils have been in a relatively mediocre ACC. Duke struggled with Louisville on the road, Clemson at home, and has lost at home to Miami while losing on the road at Florida State. Keep in mind that Florida State has been bad in the weeks since that win over Duke. The ACC might get no more than four teams into the 2022 NCAA Tournament, which would be a terrible outcome for the conference, and yet Duke does not look dominant against ACC opposition this year. It's very concerning.

Yet, when you formulate your Duke North Carolina pick, you will then turn around and look at the Tar Heels, and see that they're a mess. If Duke is underachieving, North Carolina has — by comparison — made the Blue Devils look downright competent. It has been a rough ride for longtime Roy Williams assistant Hubert Davis, a former UNC basketball player who was given the keys as Williams' successor this season. Davis has had a very hard time getting this Carolina team to play elite defense. North Carolina has been shredded by Kentucky, Miami, Wake Forest, and several other opponents. UNC badly needs this game for its NCAA Tournament hopes. Failing to beat Duke might mean North Carolina will have to go to the NIT. That's not how Davis hoped to start his tenure, and it has a lot of Tar Heel fans worried that the school did not hire the right head coach. Wes Miller was a more popular choice, but UNC didn't go in that direction.

This game might tell us if Davis can turn things around in Chapel Hill.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Duke-North Carolina odds:

College Basketball odds: Duke-North Carolina Odds

Duke: -3 (-110)

North Carolina: +3 (-110)

Over: 151 (-110)

Under: 151 (-110)

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Why Duke Could Cover the Spread

The North Carolina Tar Heels play terrible defense and are a mediocre team which won't make the NCAA Tournament. Don't overthink this.

Why North Carolina Could Cover the Spread

The Duke team which beat Gonzaga is not the team we have seen for most of the season. If the ordinary version of Duke shows up, an inspired UNC team — in a rivalry game — could easily win outright.

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Final Duke-North Carolina Prediction & Pick

UNC will play with great energy, but the Tar Heels' flaws will be covered and minimized for only so long. Carolina is a mediocre team, and Duke will find ways to exploit that before it's too late.

Final Duke-North Carolina Pick: Duke -3