Christmas is over and the college football bowl games are starting to get good. It's time to continue our college football odds series with an Air Force-Louisville prediction and pick.
Air Force football is starting to become a very good football program. They finished 9-3 this year after starting the season 6-1. Air Force is 13-13-1 in bowl games and so they have a chance to have a winning record with a win Tuesday. The team is known for their defense, giving up just 19.1 points per game this year. Keeping collegiate football teams to under 20 points on average is not an easy task. It's the run game that controls the offense and it's going to be interesting to see how Louisville game plans for it. Junior running back Brad Roberts leads the team in carries (279) and yards (1279) and finished with 13 rushing touchdowns on the season.
The Cardinals are not where they were back in the Lamar Jackson days. The team contains an elite QB like Jackson, but the surrounding cast isn't where they want it. Louisville ended the year 6-6 in what was a competitive ACC conference this year. Quarterback Malik Cunningham did it all for Louisville this season. He passed for 2,734 yards and 18 touchdowns, while also leading the team in rushing with 968 yards and 19 touchdowns. Those 19 touchdowns were the most by any quarterback this season and good for fifth in scoring alone.
Here is how FanDuel set the Air Force-Louisville line for the First Responder Bowl.
College Football Odds: Air Force-Louisville Odds
Air Force: +1.5 (-112)
Louisville: -1.5 (-108)
Over: 54.5 (-118)
Under: 54.5 (-104)
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Why Air Force Could Cover The Spread
Air Force will need to cover this spread with their defense and run game. It's not going to be easy containing a quarterback like Cunningham, so it will take a solid game plan. If they can stop him and not let him control the game then they will keep it close. Cunningham can clearly throw the ball well enough to disrupt a defense, but his true threat is escaping the pocket and his designed runs. Air Force's number one priority will be containing Cunningham with their elite defense. Offensively, Roberts and the o-line will need to create holes and an offensive rhythm. It's likely going to be a high-scoring game because of the talent on offense. Air Force will need to match whatever Louisville does if they want a chance to cover and potentially win the game.
Why Louisville Could Cover The Spread
Louisville shouldn't be happy with how their season ended. A 6-6 year is barely good enough for a bowl game, so they will need to play very well to end on a positive note. Louisville comes in as favorites as an ACC team shouldn't have an issue beating a Mountain West team. That won't be the case this year as Air Force won't make it easy for them. Louisville needs to find ways to beat the strong Air Force defense because that is their strong point. If Air Force finds themselves down a ton of points, they won't be able to crawl themselves out of it. Air Force doesn't pass the ball really at all, so their rushing attack won't be enough if they have a big deficit.
Final Air Force-Louisville Prediction & Pick
The matchup to focus on in this one is the Louisville offense against the Air Force defense. The winner of that matchup should tell the tail in this game. If Air Force wants to win this game, they might have to score north of 40 points. The only way they keep this game low-scoring is if Air Force completely shuts down Cunningham, which will be a very tough task. Air Force is 7-4-1 against the spread this year and Louisville is 6-6. This isn't an easy pick, but I'm taking Louisville to win in a close game.
Final Air Force-Louisville Prediction & Pick: Louisville -1.5 (-108) & Over: 54.5 (-118)
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