This year’s New Year’s Six bowl games feature several exciting matchups outside of the playoff games. You can read about our college football picks for the playoff games here. Utah will look to win the Rose Bowl after coming up just short last year, while Penn State tries to keep the Rose Bowl trophy in the Big 10. USC will look to finish their season on a high note after missing out on an opportunity to play for the national championship.

All college football odds courtesy of FanDuel.

New Years Six Pick: Tulane-USC

Tulane: +1.5 (-106), ML +105

USC: -1.5 (-114), ML -126

Caleb Williams will be playing for USC in this game, and that should make all the difference for Lincoln Riley’s squad. With a healthy Williams, USC is a dangerous team, arguably top six nationally in terms of talent. This USC team is worthy of competing for a national championship, and despite a loss to Utah in the conference championship game that kept them out of the playoffs, this team is still capable of defeating anyone on any given day. 

USC will look to get their revenge on Monday when they take on Tulane.

Expect Williams to throw the ball all over the field against a Tulane defense that is ranked fairly highly but has not been tested in this way before. Tulane ranks 27th in passing yards allowed per game at 200.2, but USC is a different kind of beast, a caliber of team that Tulane has yet to face this season.

USC averages 325.7 yards per game through the air, and Williams will put plenty of pressure on Tulane’s defense. His mobility, escapability, and improvisation will prove a challenge for Tulane’s pass rush, and his arm talent will create headaches for Tulane’s secondary. 

Williams also has the ability to make off-platform throws, sidearm throws, and other types of throws that can stretch a defense past its breaking point by forcing them to cover more of the field than they would normally need to cover. For example, conventional wisdom when a quarterback rolls out one way is that eliminates the opposite side of the field, but with quarterbacks of this archetype who can make throws at off angles across the field, you have to be ready for anything. The result is similar to a player like Steph Curry who forces a defense to pay attention to him 40 feet from the rim, which bends the defense in ways it was not meant to bend and puts too much pressure on the rest of the defense, which ultimately results in the defense collapsing.

The Pick: USC moneyline -126

New Years Six Pick: Penn State-Utah

Penn State: +2.5 (-114), ML +105

Utah: -2.5 (-106), ML -126

Penn State earns a berth in the Rose Bowl following the conclusion of an excellent season for the Nittany Lions, while Utah earned the PAC-12 championship after defeating USC. 

Utah features a stifling defense and a run-heavy offense that likes to wear down opponents. However, Utah will be playing without one of their top targets in the passing game Dalton Kincaid, who has declared for the 2023 NFL draft and will be sitting this game out. That is a big loss for the Utes, but it doesn’t dramatically alter their offense from a schematic standpoint, as they will still be able to run the ball and force opponents to bend to their play style. Penn State ranks 14th against the run, allowing just 106.2 yards per game on the ground, while the Utes average 218.1 yards per game on the ground this season. This will be a matchup of strength versus strength, and whichever team is able to control the trenches and the run game will have a significant edge in this matchup.

Utah will have the emotional edge in this game, representing the PAC-12 in the historic Rose Bowl, the Granddaddy of em all after they suffered a heartbreaking loss in last year’s Rose Bowl at the hands of Ohio State. The Utes will be motivated to bounce back and win this historic game, and I believe they will. Utah is very effective on the ground, and they will dictate the way this game is played. If Utah can play on its own terms, they will have a very good chance of winning this game. I give them about a 70% chance of winning, so I’ll happily take -126 odds and back the Utes in the Rose Bowl.

The Pick: Utah moneyline -126

New Years Six Pick: LSU-Purdue

LSU: -15.5 (-110), ML -650

Purdue: +15.5 (-110), ML +460

This is a tough game to call because LSU could easily win in a blowout, but I think the more likely outcome is an LAU victory in the 9-18 point range. With the spread currently being -15.5, I am going to stay away from that because I could see a 10 or 12-point win as very realistic. I also see little to no value in the LSU moneyline at -650. I think this is close to a lock for some kind of LSU victory in the end, but betting heavy moneyline favorites isn’t a consistent strategy and won’t work out in your favor over the long run. Personally, I am going to stay away from this game, but if you do want to bet on LSU-Purdue I would advise betting on an alternate spread. The best value alt spread I see is LSU -8.5 at -225 odds. It’s a bit of juice but will give you a lot of insurance if the game ends up being closer than expected, while also securing profit even if LSU wins in a blowout.