The North Carolina Tar Heels are set to face the NC State Wolfpack this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our North Carolina-NC State prediction, odds, and pick.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are not the most disappointing team in the ACC this season, but only because the Clemson Tigers and Miami Hurricanes have been even more disappointing. North Carolina has been a hugely frustrating team to watch in this profoundly unfulfilled season for the Tar Heels and Mack Brown. UNC began the season in the top 15 and immediately face-planted against Virginia Tech, a team which has turned out to be mediocre enough to fire its head coach, Justin Fuente.

The Tar Heels didn't use that loss as a wakeup call. People who study college football odds for a living are aware of that. They continued to lack answers on offense. Sam Howell is just one member of a 2022 NFL draft quarterback class who has struggled — Spencer Rattler and Kedon Slovis are other examples — but his problems were devastating for a North Carolina team which depended on him and didn't have a large margin for error if Howell wasn't on top of his game. When considering a North Carolina-NC State pick, realize that the Tar Heels didn't play Clemson this year and still got shredded by the ACC, falling to Florida State at home and Georgia Tech on the road. It has been a plainly abysmal season for Mack Brown, who keeps recruiting well but then stumbling on Saturdays.

North Carolina State is hoping Boston College will deliver some magic this weekend. Boston College could send NC State to the ACC Championship Game for the first time in school history if it beats Wake Forest. NC State would advance to the big game if it can handle its business against North Carolina and get help from the Eagles. This is part of the context in which a North Carolina-NC State prediction will be made. The Wolfpack are playing for very high stakes.

North Carolina State needs the ACC championship to get the first New Year's Six bowl berth in school history. The Wolfpack won't be able to get an NY6 invitation as an at-large team. Their recent loss to Wake Forest made sure of that.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:

College Football odds: North Carolina-NC State Odds

North Carolina: +6.5 (-114)

NC State: -6.5 (-106)

Over: 62.5 (-108)

Under: 62.5 (-112)

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Why North Carolina Could Cover the Spread

The NC State Wolfpack have a reputation for losing the big game, the game which can make or break a season. As noted above, North Carolina State is still searching for the first New Year's Six (formerly BCS) bowl bid in school history. The Wolfpack always seem to step on a rake just when they're on the verge of doing something special. It's true that if Wake Forest beats Boston College, NC State won't get a big bowl bid under any circumstance. However, State needs to at least put pressure on Wake Forest and force the Demon Deacons to finish off the ACC Atlantic Division race. North Carolina is playing with house money here. Sam Howell is not 100-percent healthy, but he will play, and it takes just one great performance from him to change the dynamic of this game. This is part of the uncertainty surrounding a North Carolina-NC State pick.

Why NC State Could Cover the Spread

The Wolfpack are the better team, playing at home. Sam Howell is not fully healthy for North Carolina. NC State quarterback Devin Leary has been a solid, productive signal-caller for head coach Dave Doeren. The Wolfpack hope to make this game uncomplicated. People considering a North Carolina-NC State prediction should keep it uncomplicated as well.

Final North Carolina-NC State Prediction & Pick

North Carolina could easily be the fly in the ointment, but the Tar Heels have been so noticeably flawed this season that NC State should be able to expose them. It's frankly a game bettors should stay away from, but UNC has not earned the benefit of the doubt; NC State has.

Final North Carolina-NC State Pick: NC State -6.5