The UCF Knights are set to face the Florida Gators this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college football odds series, which includes our UCF-Florida Gasparilla Bowl prediction and pick we have laid out below.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here’s the UCF-Florida Gasparilla Bowl odds:

College Football odds: UCF-Florida Gasparilla Bowl Odds 

UCF +7 (-110)

Florida -7 (-110)

Over 55.5 (-115)

Under 55.5 (-105)

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Why UCF Could Cover the Spread 

The UCF Knights have had a solid season, sitting at an 8-4 record and 3rd in the American division. Beginning their season, the Knights exploded for 99 points in their first two games. The offense was extremely explosive until quarterback Dillon Gabriel had gotten injured with a broken collarbone in September. The Knights leaned on freshman Mikey Keene to lead the offense the rest of the way.  Keene has thrown for 1,586 passing yards and 16 touchdowns this year. Gabriel has entered the transfer portal and will be transferring to UCLA after this season is over. Ryan O'Keefe has a team-high 77 catches for 727 receiving yards. Offensively, the Knights average 29.4 points and 375.7 yards per game. They have won five out of their last six games, averaging 30 points during this stretch.

UCF's defense displayed improvement as the season went on and came up big in late game situations for the Knights. The defense allows 26.2 points and 377.5 yards per game to opponents. The Knights rank 7th in the nation in opponent yards per pass (6.7) and 22nd in takeaways per game (1.7). They will be facing a well-rounded Gators attack that ranks 10th in yards per rush (5.3) this season. The Gators are 0-6 against the spread in their last six non-conference games and 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven neutral site games. The game's neutral site will be played in Tampa, FL on Thursday night.

Why Florida Could Cover the Spread 

The Florida Gators have had an up and down 2021 campaign. The Gators finished 6-6 and 6th in the SEC – East. They ended the season on a positive note, beating the Florida State Seminoles 24-21 on senior night. Florida totaled 357 yards and forced three turnovers in the victory. The program was expected to be elite this year, but could not find a groove which resulted in the termination of head coach Dan Mullen. Although junior quarterback Emory Jones had an inconsistent season, he was the main focus of this Florida offense. Jones threw for 2.563 passing yards and 19 touchdowns while rushing for 697 yards and four touchdowns. Offensively, the Gators averaged 28.4 points and 449.1 yards per game. They ranked 17th in the nation in total yards per play (6.3).

This Gators defense was exploited several times this year as they allowed 52 points in a shootout versus Samford. The pass defense is much better than the run defense, as they rank 37th in the FBS against the pass and 69th against the run. They allow 24.3 points and 375.7 yards per game to opponents. Leading receiver Jacob Copeland has opted out for this game as he enters the transfer portal.

Final UCF-Florida Gasparilla Bowl Prediction & Pick

The Knights have allowed 17 or fewer points in five out of their last six games. Florida will be missing a key weapon on offense and it will be difficult to go up against a UCF defense that limits foes to just 213 passing yards per game. With that being said, I believe the Knights will do enough offensively to keep pace with the Gators and cover the touchdown spread. There could be an opportunity to upset as well for the Knights.

Final UCF-Florida Gasparilla Bowl Prediction & Pick: UCF +7 (-110)