Ranked 10th overall in the nation, Shaka Smart’s Marquette Golden Eagles will take on Greg McDermott’s 22nd-ranked Creighton Bluejays. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Creighton-Marquette prediction and pick. 

Coming off disappointing March finishes for both squads, Shaka Smart and Greg McDermott returned nearly everyone. Interestingly, both teams lost a starter at the four. For Marquette, they lost 6-7 versatile wing specialist Olivier-Maxence Prosper to the NBA. For Creighton, 6-7 Arthur Kaluma hit the transfer portal averaging 15.3 points and 8.2 rebounds per game for Jerome Tang’s Kansas State Wildcats. Creighton also saw point guard Ryan Nembhard transfer to Gonzaga. In return, McDermott reeled in Utah State’s Steven Ashworth. While Ashworth provides a better three-point shot, they have lost Nembhard’s downhill blow-by ability. 

Shaka Smart and his Golden Eagles have arguably the best win in college basketball. A 14-point neutral-court win over Kansas in late November was as impressive as it gets. Since then, Marquette has dropped three road games while maintaining perfection at home. Marquette announced on Thursday that the Fiserv Forum will be at maximum capacity.

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Creighton-Marquette Odds

Creighton: +3.5 (-105)

Marquette: -3.5 (-115)

Over: 148.5 (-115)

Under: 148.5 (-105)

How to Watch Creighton vs. Marquette

Time: 2:00 pm ET/ 11:00 am PT

TV: CBS

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Creighton Will Cover The Spread

Per usual, Creighton has one of the premier perimeter offenses in the country. Ryan Kalkbrenner (7-1, Sr), Trey Alexander (6-4, Jr) and Baylor Scheierman (6-7, Sr) have formed one of the more dangerous trios the Big East has to offer. All three rank top ten in the Big East in scoring with Scheierman (18.3ppg) leading the conference. No matter who the opponent is, you can guarantee at least one of these guys is going to have a night. 

Importantly, Ryan Kalkbrenner is healthy. Last year when Creighton traveled to Marquette and suffered an 11-point loss Kalkbrenner was injured. Soaking up over 70% of the minutes at center, Kalkbrenner is vital for what McDermott likes to run defensively. Backup Fredrick King (6-10, So) has certainly improved, but he still struggles to defend without fouling. 

If I am being honest, I think this is a bad matchup for Creighton. Creighton’s best defensive category is how they defend without fouling, but Marquette does not rely on the free throw line for much. One area where you can minimize a bad matchup is with tempo. While Marquette ranks 11th nationally in offensive tempo, Creighton ranks 177th. If they can slow the game down and play at their slower pace, they have a shot. 

Why Marquette Will Cover The Spread

To be honest, I think Creighton really misses Arthur Kaluma. His replacements Mason Miller (6-9, So) and Isaac Traudt (6-10, Fr) both stretch the floor offensively but struggle defensively. The regression defensively is immense. Also, they miss Ryan Nembhard. Steven Ashworth has by far the worst assist rate of his career. Ashworth is still struggling to carve out his role in this system.  

Where Creighton misses their guys badly, that is not the case for Marquette. Last year's sixth man David Joplin (6-8, Jr) has stepped right in for Prosper. Where Prosper was more versatile defensively, Joplin shoots about 5% better from three. 

Similar to last year, Creighton does not turn over their opponents. In fact, they rank dead last nationally in both steal rate and turnover rate. This style of defense does not work against Marquette and the way Tyler Kolek orchestrates the offense. Last year Marquette swept the season series winning by 11 at home (no Kalkbrenner) and then by 2 on the road. I only mention that because I truly believe the Bluejays have taken a step back from last year. 

Last year, North Florida surrendered the most points from inside the arc (60.3% of total opponent points). Creighton came in at 5th most, allowing 59.4% of total points from two-point range. Fast forward to this season and boy does it get ugly. Creighton is allowing an insane 68% of their points surrendered to come from inside the arc. For context, the next highest is Southern Utah at 62.8%. Significantly, Marquette’s best offensive category is its two-point percentage of 58.0% which ranks 14th nationally. 

Also, it is worth noting that Creighton has not played in ten days. Their last game was an overtime loss at home to Villanova on December 20th. Could we see some rust out of the gate? Possibly. Creighton has been blown out twice this year, losing by 19 to Colorado State and 15 to UNLV. I think it might be time for us to admit that this Creighton team is not that good.  

Final Creighton-Marquette Prediction & Pick

The key for Creighton seems to be 80 points. In games where the Bluejays have scored over 80 points, they are 7-1. In games where they have scored less than 80 points, they are 0-3. Marquette has not let up over 80 points yet this year. None of Illinois, Purdue, Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas, or Providence could reach 80 points on Marquette. 

I predict Creighton’s defensive regression from losing Nembhard and Kaluma will continue to play a factor. Give me the home team to win and cover in this Big East showdown. 

Final Creighton-Marquette Prediction & Pick: Marquette -3.5 (-115)