Florida and South Carolina are set for a key SEC East showdown in Week 7 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia. We continue our college football odds series with a Florida-South Carolina prediction, pick, and how to watch.

The Gators are coming off a 38-14 win against Vanderbilt, which was a welcome sight after the lackluster performance at Kentucky (L 33-14) the previous week. Can Billy Napier's team move one step closer to bowl eligibility with their fifth win of the season?

As for the Gamecocks, they exit a much-needed bye week with something to prove after the Gators handed it to them in a 38-6 defeat in Gainesville a season ago.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Florida-South Carolina Odds

Florida: +2.5 (-110)

South Carolina: -2.5 (-110)

Over: 50.5 (-105)

Under: 50.5 (-115)

How to Watch Florida vs. South Carolina Week 7

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT

TV: SEC Network

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Florida Will Cover The Spread

Florida's defense has been a pleasant surprise to this point after struggling a season ago. The Gators rank in the top 30 nationally in several important areas: 11th in passing yards allowed (166.0), 16th in total yards allowed (286.2), 18th in scoring defense (16.8), and 28th in opponent completion percentage (56.4%). That's been the strength of this team, which was on full display in the signature Week 3 win against Tennessee.

The play of quarterback Graham Mertz may be the bigger surprise. Many didn't know what to expect from the Wisconsin transfer in this offense heading into the season, but he's been about as rock solid as Florida could ask for. Mertz is completing a whopping 80.0 percent of his passes, and he's thrown for 1,474 yards and nine touchdowns (plus two rushing TDs), while throwing just two interceptions. He has a great matchup in this game against a South Carolina defense that ranks 128th in passing yards allowed (301.4) and 112th in yards per attempt (8.3). Good quarterback play is needed to win on the road in the SEC, and Mertz should have another efficient performance in slinging it to leading receiver Ricky Pearsall (34 RECs, 453 YDs, 2 TDs) and others.

However, it won't just be about Mertz and the passing game. Florida is expected to get second-leading rusher Trevor Etienne back from injury, and he'll once again form a two-headed monster in the backfield with Montrell Johnson Jr. Combine all of those offensive elements together, and it gives the Gators plenty of ways to exploit South Carolina's weaknesses on defense.

Why South Carolina Will Cover The Spread

Shane Beamer's group has played one of the toughest schedules in college football having already squared off with North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee, and the difference in this matchup is they finally get one of these games in their home stadium. Even better? Florida's performances on the road have, well, not been good this season. The Gators opened the season with a brutal performance in a 24-11 loss at Utah, and they were never a threat to Kentucky in the 33-14 defeat in Lexington a few weeks ago. However, that's not a trend that started in the 2023 season.

In the Napier era, Florida is now 1-7 away from home. The Gators defeated a disappointing Texas A&M team last November, but they've lost five straight since then, which includes the 30-3 loss to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Also, Florida is just 2-4 against the spread this season, and one of those came in the win over Vanderbilt, who is 0-7 ATS.

Those issues for the visiting team could be magnified by the combination of South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler and wide receiver Xavier Legette. While Florida has statistically been good against the passing attack, one of the reasons is that teams have simply found success running the ball (see Kentucky's Ray Davis rushing for 280 yards and 3 TDs against the Gators). Rattler is completing 73.0 percent of his passes, with 37-yard or more play to his credit in all five games thus far. Legette has been his main target with 32 receptions for 606 yards and three touchdowns, and he's posted plays of 32 yards or more in every game.

The Gamecocks have struggled to protect Rattler (131st with 4.5 sacks allowed per game), but Florida is only averaging 1.5 sacks (113th). If he has time to throw, he and Legette could give South Carolina the offensive boost it needs to win this game.

Final Florida-South Carolina Prediction & Pick

There isn't a lot that separates these two teams. Florida may have the edge in several significant statistical areas, but the road issues make it hard to pick Napier's squad with a spread under a field goal. If this moved to three, the Gators may be the better pick. However, since it's not, the Gamecocks are the choice in a revenge game.

Final Florida-South Carolina Prediction & Pick: South Carolina -2.5 (-110)