The Cleveland Guardians are on the road to take on the Kansas City Royals Thursday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Guardians-Royals prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Guardians-Royals Projected Starters
Ben Lively vs. Michael Wacha
Ben Lively (7-3) with a 3.13 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 65.1 innings pitched, 56K/20BB, .232 oBA
Last Start: vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Win, 5.2 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 7 starts, 3.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 36 innings pitched, 29K/14BB, .243 oBA
Michael Wacha (4-6) with a 4.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 73 innings pitched, 61K/21BB, .247 oBA
Last Start: at Texas Rangers: Loss, 5 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 5 starts, 4.28 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 27.1 innings pitched, 20K/7BB, .286 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Royals Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+146)
Moneyline: -112
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-178)
Moneyline: -104
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
How to Watch Guardians vs. Royals
Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes, Bally Sports Kansas City
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians have one of their better pitchers on the mound for this game. Lively has been having an outstanding season, and the Guardians need that to continue in this game. Lively has a 3.54 ERA this month, and he has not had a month with an ERA worse than that this year. If Lively can continue to throw the ball well in this game, the Guardians will win.
The Guardians are facing Michael Wacha, and they should be able to put some balls in play. Wacha has a low strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate, and walk rate. This means he will attack hitters in the zone, and his whole goal is to force weak contact. The Guardians need to barrel the ball when they get the pitches in the zone. If they can do that, they will win this game.
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
As mentioned, Ben Lively is having a good season. However, his advanced stats indicate that he has been getting a little bit lucky. Lively is in the bottom 15th percentile in fastball velo, average exit velocity, chase percentage, whiff percentage, and he is in just the 19th percentile in hard hit percentage. Lively allows opposing teams to hit the ball hard off him. The Royals are pretty good offensively, so they should be able to have a good offensive game in this one.
Wacha has been just average this season, but there is a good chance for him to have a good game. Despite the Guardians being a very good team, they are not the best at the plate. Cleveland has the second-worst barrel percentage, the lowest hard hit percentage, and fifth-lowest average exit velocity. They are not a team that hits the ball hard often. Cleveland has the fifth-highest chase rate, which is probably why they are struggling to consistently barrel the ball. Nonetheless, Wacha should be able to have a shutdown performance in this game.
Final Guardians-Royals Prediction & Pick
This should be a good game between two of the best in the AL Central division. I am going to take the Royals to win this game straight up, though. I think they will outhit, and outpitch the Guardians Thursday night.
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Final Guardians-Royals Prediction & Pick: Royals ML (-104)