Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans will play host to Josh Schertz’s Indiana State Sycamores. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Indiana State-Michigan State prediction and pick. 

Before becoming the Indiana State head coach in 2021, Josh Schertz spent thirteen years coaching Division II’s Lincoln Memorial Railsplitters. His 318-65 (.830) record at Lincoln Memorial is the second-highest overall winning percentage in college basketball history at all levels for a head coach with at least ten years of coaching experience. In summary, the guy is a pure winner. 

Schertz has the Sycamores off and running this year with an 11-1 record. That lone loss came at Alabama in the second game of the year when star forward 6-10 Robbie Avila was out. Avila is truly one of the best forwards in mid-major college basketball this season—his impact can not be emphasized enough. 

At 7-5, Tom Izzo and company have not enjoyed the early season success that was projected of them. The loss of sharpshooter Joey Hauser has impacted the offense more than most predicted. However, the Spartans have figured things out rattling off three in a row including a massacre over Baylor, 88-64. The emergence of 6-11 sophomore Carson Cooper has complimented the veteran backcourt of AJ Hoggard, Tyson Walker, and Jaden Akins quite nicely.

Two squads who seem to be playing their best basketball clash in what is Michigan State’s first Saturday home game of the season. I predict possible game-of-the-week entertainment from this one. 

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Indiana State-Michigan State Odds

Indiana State: +8.5 (-102)

Michigan State: -8.5 (-120)

Over: 150.5 (-115)

Under: 150.5 (-105)

How to Watch Indiana State vs. Michigan State 

Time: 2:00 pm ET/ 11:00 am PT

TV: FS1

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Indiana State Will Cover The Spread

To start, we have to mention how good this offense is. Through 12 games, the Sycamores boast the 1st overall effective field goal percentage in the nation (61.7%). Yes, you read the correctly. Indiana State shoots the 3rd best percentage nationally from beyond the arc (41.4%) and 6th best percentage inside (61.2%). With an offense that efficient, you can never count the Sycamores out. Indiana State has only scored under 80 points twice this season. 

Secondly, Michigan State’s worst loss of the season was a 13-point loss at home against Wisconsin. The Badgers’ 7-0 center Steven Crowl had a career-high night shooting 4-4 from beyond the arc. If they played again would Crowl make four threes again? I would say probably not. But, it does show that Michigan State is vulnerable to a shooting big. With the Spartans playing more and more of Carson Cooper, they have to play more drop coverage. Robbie Avila should see quality looks all game, it is just a matter of making them when they matter.

Additionally, the Sycamores have one of the best shooting point guards in the nation in 5-10 Isaiah Swope. The Southern Indiana transfer is averaging 3.5 made threes per game, which ranks 9th in the nation. Anytime you have an offense this potent, you are game to cover a multiple-possession spread. 

Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread

Initially, Michigan State has the talent to take advantage of the Sycamore defense. With 6-10 freshman Derek Vorst out for Indiana State, no one has a block rate above 2.5%. Robbie Avila is the Sycamore leader in blocks with only 7 through 10 games. As a team, Indiana State ranks bottom 20 nationally in block rate. I predict Indiana State might not block a single shot all game. 

Michigan State’s offense matches up perfectly against a defense that fails to protect the rim. When looking at the Spartans' point distribution, they rank 293rd in points from three, 248th in points from free throws, and 41st in points from two. With downhill guards like AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker, this Michigan State team has done the majority of their damage from inside. Hoggard and Walker will be fearless driving to the rim all day long.

Lastly, Michigan State’s defense has done a decent job this season defending the three-point line ranking top 50 in opponent three-point percentage (29.7%). The Spartans held Duke to 27.3%, held Arizona to 26.3%, and held Baylor to 31.6%. Robbie Avila does offer more spacing so expect the Sycamores to get a few good looks, but this is not a Spartan defense that will give up many clean looks from deep. 

Also, I want to note that the game that jumped Indiana State way up the analytical ratings was their 77-48 win at home over Southern Illinois. Southern Illinois shot 3-20 from deep in that game with star Xavier Johnson having his worst offensive night of the season. Honestly, I think the computers are putting a bit too much weight on that win.

Final Indiana State-Michigan State Prediction & Pick

We must remember this is the first home Saturday game at Michigan State this season. With the hype around Indiana State, I do not think we see any funny business with a holiday-season crowd. This place will be absolutely rocking.

With how weak Indiana State’s rim protection is and how aggressive the Michigan State guard will drive, I predict the Spartans to have the easier path to points over forty minutes. Yes, the Sycamores will hit some threes, but I think we saw how well this Michigan State team can defend the arc against Baylor. Give me the team with the path to easier scoring to cover at home.

Final Indiana State-Michigan State Prediction & Pick: Michigan State -8.5 (-120)