Italy has one of the strangest resumes in this tournament. They've been unable to qualify for the last two World Cups but are the defending Euro Champions. Albania qualified for their second Euro tournament ever but did so in impressive fashion. Albania finished top of their qualification group, which included the Czech Republic and Poland. It is time to continue our Euro 2024 odds series with an Italy-Albania prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Italy's fans are already upset about not qualifying for two consecutive World Cups. Their Euro qualification form didn't do anything to quiet the haters, as they needed points in their final game against Ukraine to advance to the tournament. Italy didn't do it convincingly, as they had a scoreless draw to get past Ukraine. Luciano Spalletti took over as manager of the Italians with four games remaining in qualifying after their previous coach went to coach Saudi Arabia. Spalletti is an effective tactical manager, which could improve Italy's stock heading into the tournament.

Albania won't wow fans with their defensive, low-event style. However, it worked for them, as they finished first in their qualifying group. They had clean sheets over the Czech Republic and Poland to hold the top position. Jasir Asani will be the player to watch for Armenia, but it won't be easy for him in the best group in the tournament. Albania could struggle to generate offense against teams like Italy, Spain, and Croatia.

Here are the 2024 Euros odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Euros Odds: Italy-Albania Odds

Italy: -260

Albania: +800

Draw: +360

Over 2.5 goals: +108

Under 2.5 goals: -132

How to Watch Italy vs. Albania

Time: 3 PM ET/noon PT

TV: FOX, TSN

Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)

Why Italy Will Win

Italy is 17th in forward pass completion rate and 18th in long-ball completion rate. They play this style when teams play a pressing style on defense. If teams sit back, the Italians switch to a more natural possession-based style where they spread out and use the width of the field. Albania is a team that sits back in the low block and tries to capitalize with counterattacking. The strategy worked in qualifying with the weaker teams, but they'll have trouble outgunning Spain, Croatia, and Italy.

Why Albania Will Win

Albania could be in a situation where they are just happy to be there for this tournament, especially with their draw into the Group of Death. They do have one area where they can exploit Italy. Italy is 22nd in counterattack shots allowed. It's hard to imagine Albania's defense being able to slow down Italy's talent. However, Italy's style of bringing their fullbacks up wide on the attack could allow Asani some chances to counterattack. Albania was able to finish top of their qualifying group with these tactics, so they could upset a team in this group if everything went right.

Final Italy-Albania Prediction & Pick

Albania needs everything to go right to win this game, and Italy's offense will break through. Italy's best option is to play Gianluca Scamacca up front, but Spaletti has played Giacoma Raspadori in every game since he took the helm. Raspadori will limit Italy's offensive ceiling, and the Albania games were low-event during qualifying. Albania had 7.44 expected goals in eight games, where they won four and drew three to finish top of their group.

If Albania averaged less than one expected goal per game in qualifying, they could have a difficult time scoring at all in this group, Albania's qualifying games also averaged 1.97 expected goals total.

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Final Italy-Albania Prediction & Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-132)