Ranked 6th in the nation, John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats take a trip to College Station to take on Buzz Williams’ Texas A&M Aggies in this SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Kentucky-Texas A&M prediction and pick.

John Calipari’s bunch are playing some of their best basketball heading into this SEC clash. After sneaking out of Gainesville with a road victory, the Cats handled a depleted Missouri team at Rupp to improve to 2-0 in the conference. Former UMass, Texas, and West Virginia stretch forward Tre Mitchell has been massive. Two straight double-doubles have cemented Mitchell as one of the most impactful transfer portal additions in the country. 

Contrarily, Buzz Williams and the Aggies have gotten out to a rough start after being picked 2nd in the coach's preseason poll. The absence of now-healthy Tyrece Radford has been a major factor in the early season woes. Preseason SEC player of the year Wade Taylor has been alarmingly inefficient – forcing things a bit with Radford out. 

Is this the game the Aggies right the ship at home, or will Kentucky be too much to handle?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Kentucky-Texas A&M Odds

Kentucky: +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: +104

Texas A&M: -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: -125

Over: 156.5 (-110)

Under: 156.5 (-110)

How to Watch Kentucky vs. Texas A&M 

Time: 2:oo pm ET/ 11:00 am PT

TV: ESPN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread

To start, the analytics on this matchup jump off the page. On one hand, we have Kentucky shooting the 8th-best three-point percentage in the nation at 39.9%. On the other, we have Texas A&M shooting 26.0% from outside which ranks 355th nationally. If you want to look at that stat alone and draw your conclusion to take Kentucky, I do not blame you. The numbers are truly jarring. 

Since losing to Wilmington without DJ Wagner, Kentucky has scored 81 points or more in six straight games with only two of those games coming at Rupp. In Texas A&M’s past six games, they have failed to reach 80 points. Alarmingly, the Aggies have scored 53 and 55 points in their first two SEC games – just brutal. If Kentucky stays completely true to their offensive numbers on the road here, I struggle to see Texas A&M holding pace. 

Secondly, I like how this Kentucky team does not rely on the free throw line for a majority of their points. The Cats only get 16.5% of their points from the free-throw line. When playing on the road in conference, you can almost guarantee you are not going to get the type of whistle you want. For Kentucky, this will have little impact on their offense as they do not rely on free throws for much. 

Matchup-wise, we just saw Texas A&M get destroyed by 6-8 245lb senior, Jaylin Williams. Williams plays that stretch forward position next to Johni Broome for Auburn. Similarly, Kentucky uses 6-9 231lb senior Tre Mitchell next to Aaron Bradshaw. I am not saying Mitchell is going to have 20+ points, but you can see from previous matchups that the Aggies have struggled with defending that athletic stretch-forward position.

Why Texas A&M Will Cover The Spread

Thankfully, my good friend on Twitter, JBR Bracketology, has provided alarming data on how Top 50 teams (KenPom) have faired on the road. Through ten weeks, teams ranked from 11-20 on KenPom when facing a top 100 opponent in a true road game are 6-14 (30%) this season. Kentucky ranks 16th per KenPom. No, it’s not a fluke. Teams ranked 21-30 are 6-12 (33.3%) on the road, ranked 31-40 are 9-14 (39.1%), and ranked 41-50 are 6-16 (27.3%). 

With the understanding of how insanely hard it has been for teams to win on the road, let us begin breaking down where the Aggies may find success. Naturally, you can look at the numbers for five seconds and say A&M will not be able to shoot well enough to keep up with Kentucky. A two-year-old can see that. While they are better shooting teams, it is important to note that Kentucky allowed 9 three-pointers to Florida and 8 to Missouri. 

Significantly, both Todd Golden and Dennis Gates said postgame they were shocked by how many open threes their teams missed. After watching the games back, I thought both Florida and Missouri should have had more like 11-12 three-pointers made. 

But Max, what if the outside shot is not falling for the Aggies? Well, let us look at the efficiency of previous guard tandems Kentucky has played recently. Against Florida, the Cats allowed Zyon Pullin and Walter Clayton to combine for 46 points, shooting a combined 16-32 (50%) from the floor. Against Missouri, Sean East and Tamar Bates combined for 37 points, on a combined 13-24 (54.2%) from the floor. In summary, opposing guards have been able to get whatever they want on the Kentucky defense.

Final Kentucky-Texas A&M Prediction & Pick

I think this is the biggest trap game of the Saturday slate. With Texas A&M in desperate need of a win and Kentucky allowing a high efficiency to guards, I like the Aggies. Give me the home team in a rocking atmosphere at Reed Arena.

Final Kentucky-Texas A&M Prediction & Pick: Texas A&M -1.5 (-110)