It is the first game of the Round of 64 on Thursday as Michigan State faces Mississippi State. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Michigan State-Mississippi State prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Michigan State continues its impressive streak of making the NCAA tournament. Except for 2020, when the tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have not missed the tournament since 1997. Since 2010, they have lost their first game just twice, being upset as a two-seed in 2016, and falling in a first four games in 2021. This year, Michigan State was 19-14 and would win their first game in the Big Ten Tournament. They beat Minnesota 77-67 before falling in their next game to Purdue by five.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State returns to the tournament for a second straight year. Last year, it was a first-four loss as an 11 seed. They have not won a game in the tournament since 2004. It was a 21-13 season for Mississippi State. They would enter the SEC tournament as the nine seed and upset LSU to start. They would then upset Tennessee before falling to Auburn in the semi-finals.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Michigan State-Mississippi State Odds
Michigan State: -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -126
Mississippi State: +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +105
Over: 130.5 (-110)
Under: 130.5 (-110)
How to Watch Michigan State vs. Mississippi State
Time: 12:15 PM ET/ 9:15 AM PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Michigan State comes in ranked 18th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 57th in adjusted offensive efficiency while also sitting eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Michigan State comes in ranked 157th in the nation in points per game this year, while also sitting 21st in assists per game this year. Tyson Walker leads the way this year. He comes in with 18.2 points per game this year, while he is shooting 44.2 percent this year. Meanwhile, three other players come in with over ten points per game. That starts with Malik Hall who comes in with 12.6 points per game, while he is shooting 52.3 percent this year. A.J. Hoggard comes in with 11.0 points per game this year while leading the team in assists. Hoggard has 5.2 assists per game this year. Rounding out the top scorers is Jaden Akins, who comes in with 10.2 points per game.
Michigan State sits 184th in rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile, they sit 126th in both offensive and defensive rebound percentages. Malik Hall leads the way with 5.6 rebounds per game this year. He also has almost two offensive rebounds per game. Further, Mady Sissoko comes in with 5.1 rebounds per game this year. Carson Cooper rounds out the top rebounders, coming in with 4.6 rebounds per game.
Michigan State is 21st in points against per game while sitting 58th in effective field goal percentage. Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard are a major part of the defense. Walker comes in with 1.8 steals per game, while Hoggard comes in with 1.5 steals per game this year. Further, Jaden Akins comes in with 1.2 steals per game. Michigan State has 7.2 steals per game this year, and with just 9.8 turnovers per game, they end up with a solid turnover margin.
Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Mississippi State ranks 30th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 60th in adjusted offense efficiency while sitting 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency on the year. They are 120th in the nation in points per game, while sitting 123rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage. Josh Hubbard leads the way on offense. He comes in with 17.1 points per game this year but is shooting just 38.7 percent from the field. Tolu Smith is shooting well. He comes in with 15.2 points per game this year while shooting 56.4 percent from the field. Meanwhile, Cameron Matthews has 9.5 points per game but leads the team with 2.9 assists per game this year.
Mississippi State is 42nd in the nation in rebounds per game this year while sitting 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage and 107th in defensive rebounding percentage. Smith leads the way with 8.4 rebounds per this team. Further, he has three offensive rebounds per game this year. Cameron Matthews is second on the team with 6.9 rebounds per game, while D.J. Jeffries has 5.7 rebounds per game. Further, Jimmy Bell Jr adds five rebounds per game.
Mississippi State is 79th in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 47th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Further, they are 45th in the nation in steals per game this year. Matthews has been great here, coming in with 2.0 steals per game this year. Further, Dashawn Davis comes in with 1.6 steals per game, while DJ Jeffries adds 1.1 steals per game.
Final Michigan State-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
This should be a tight game between the eight and the nine seed in the West Region. first, Michigan State is solid on offense. They are not as efficient as Mississippi State, but they do score well, and move the ball well. Second, Mississippi State is the better team on the glass. That should keep them in the game. The major difference is going to be the Michigan State defense. They are one of the top defensive units in the nation. They are good at limiting shots and controlling possessions. While Mississippi State is also good at forcing bad shots, Michigan State is overall better on defense. It will be an upset in seed only as Michigan State gets the win.
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Final Michigan State-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Michigan State -1.5 (-110)
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