Matt McMahon and the LSU Tigers play host to Dennis Gates’ Missouri Tigers in this regular season SEC finale. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Missouri-LSU prediction and pick.

The 2023-2024 season has not been kind to the fighting Dennis Gates’. Currently sitting winless in the SEC, Missouri is down to their last opportunity. Losing key wing pieces like John Tonje and Caleb Grill has had a massive impact on Missouri’s perimeter play. Unfortunately, ten of their seventeen SEC losses have come by single digits. The record is much worse than it looks. 

After a slow start to conference play, LSU has a chance to go .500 in the SEC in year two of the McMahon era. This is no ‘Mickey Mouse’ run either, the Tigers knocked off South Carolina in Columbia and Kentucky at home. The turnover issue has lessened after Trae Hannibal took over the point guard role with Jalen Cook going down with a hamstring injury. Coming off a loss, LSU will look to finish the regular season on the right foot. 

On a loaded Saturday slate, this game may fly under the radar. But please understand the intensity this game will be played with. Missouri is playing to avoid a winless season and LSU is fighting for SEC tournament seeding along with going .500 in conference.

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Missouri-LSU Odds

Missouri:

Moneyline:

LSU:

Moneyline:

Over:

Under:

How to Watch Missouri vs. LSU 

Time: 7:30 ET/4:30 PT

TV: SECN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Missouri Will Cover The Spread/Win

Initially, the impact of Sean East’s absence has to be recognized. In the two games he was out, Missouri lost by a combined 43 points. Since his return, East has scored over 20 points in six straight games. This run includes games against the conferences best defenses like Tennessee and Auburn. During this six game scoring run Missouri has lost four of the six games by single digits. 

Additionally, Missouri’s ability to get to the free throw line could play a major role here. Dennis Gates was not happy with his squads free throw rate early in the season. In conference play the consistent effort to get to the rim and draw contact has paid off. Not only does Missouri rank 4th in the SEC in free throw rate (37.1%), but they also convert at the best rate (80.5%). Defensively, LSU plays into this as they foul at the 10th highest rate in the conference. 

Also, Missouri should be able to frustrate the LSU offense. By frustrate I mean steals and blocks. The LSU offense ranks 323nd in blocked shot rate (11.5%) and 339th in stolen ball rate (11.4). Thankfully, the Missouri defense ranks 14th in block rate (14.2%) and 58th in steal rate (11.1%). Sean East and Tamar Bates will be menaces on the defensive end. In LSU’s past two losses point guard Trae Hannibal has seven and four turnovers. With Jalen Cook nursing a hamstring, Hannibal will be forced to play around 84% of the point guard minutes. 

Why LSU Will Cover The Spread/Win

Senior night in Baton Rouge for an LSU squad that plays six seniors in their eight man rotation. None of which are career Tigers but still, your last ever home game is a big deal. With the big February wins over South Carolina and Kentucky this team is bought in to what McMahon is building here. A team that finished dead last in the league is a game away from .500. Talk about motivation. 

LSU’s success at home jumps out. Yes, they took a wacking from Mississippi State but that was a massive let down spot after the thrilling buzzer-beater over Kentucky. In SEC play, LSU is 5-3 at home with the losses coming to Texas A&M (52nd per KenPom), Alabama (9th per KP), and Mississippi State (33rd per KP). Missouri currently ranks 150th. Importantly, Missouri does not play like any of those teams. All three of LSU’s SEC home losses have came to teams that rank top 25 nationally in offensive rebounding. Missouri ranks 270th. 

Similar to Missouri, LSU also cashes in at the free throw line at a high rate (LSU – 36.0%, Missouri – 37.1%). But LSU defends without fouling much better (LSU – 36.1%, Missouri – 47.2%). If LSU can catch a home whistle and stay aggressive they should win the free throw battle. 

Final Missouri-LSU Prediction & Pick

When looking at the numbers there are areas that both teams can lean into and find success. Where Missouri likes to get to the line, so does LSU. Then Missouri struggles to manufacture half court offense but the turnovers and blocks help kick start. LSU has lost to teams that crush the glass but Missouri will not take advantage much. 

 

KenPom has this game as a 79-70 win for LSU and the line opened short. Remember over the past six games Missouri has lost four of them by single digits. Sean East should be able to win his matchup over Hannibal and get to his spots. LSU may win outright, but give me Missouri to keep it within a few possessions.

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Final Missouri-LSU Prediction & Pick: Missouri +7.5 (-102)