The second game of this series was rained out on Tuesday evening and now we get an exciting double-header to close out this series. New York took the series opener by a score of 4-2 on Monday night thanks to a quality start by Tylor Megill. They will now look to clinch the series in the first game with the NL MVP favorite on the bump.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Brewers-Mets odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Mets Odds
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-175)
New York Mets -1.5 (+155)
Over 4.5 Runs (-125)
Under 4.5 Runs (+105)
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Milwaukee Brewers have been one of the hottest teams in all of baseball over the past few weeks. They are 11-2 over their last 13 games and now sit 6.5 games ahead of the Reds in the NL Central standings at 51-35. The Brewers have seen a lot of success against the Mets with wins in eight of their last 10 head-to-head matchup’s. Milwaukee will look to break their brief two-game losing streak and get back to their winning ways on Wednesday afternoon.
Milwaukee’s recent offensive explosion has been incredible to watch as they’ve delivered double-digit performances in four of their last 10 games. They have scored at least five runs in seven of their last 10 as well. The Brewers are now putting up 4.38 runs per game, which is the 15th-best mark in the Majors. Their pitching staff has been terrific this season with the sixth-fewest runs allowed and the most strikeouts in baseball. Milwaukee has a +0.98 road run differential this season.
The Brewers will turn to right-hander Corbin Burnes to open the double-header. Burnes has been terrific this season with a 4-4 record and 2.41 ERA through 14 starts. He has a whopping .90 WHIP and 120 strikeouts through just 82 innings of work. Burned has thrown at least six innings of one-run ball in each of his last two starts to date.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The New York Mets have been one of the league’s most exciting teams despite all of their offensive struggles. New York has a four-game lead in the competitive NL East with a 44-37 record. The Mets have been phenomenal at home with a 25-11 record at Citi Field this season. They have won three of their last four games and 11 of their last 16 home games against Milwaukee.
There is no way to sugarcoat it. The Mets are an awful offensive club that has been saved by their dominant pitching staff. New York averaged just 3.69 runs per game, which is second-to-last in all of baseball. Thankfully, they lead the league in both runs and hits allowed per game. They allow just 2.17 runs per game at Citi Field, which explains their +1.22 run differential in home games.
The Mets will turn to right-hander Jacob deGrom as they look to clinch the series. The MVP-favorite is having one of the best seasons every by a starting pitcher. He is 7-2 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.54 WHIP through 14 starts. deGrom has struck out an incredible 136 batters through 85 innings of work. Long stories short, the Mets rarely ever lose games with their ace on the bump.
Final Brewers-Mets Prediction & Pick
Many will be siding with the under in this game and rightfully so. Burnes and deGrom have been two of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season. With the two lethal arms going head-to-head, runs should definitely be at a premium. In a seven inning game, 4.5 runs seems a bit low to me given the teams that are playing, though. Milwaukee has been scoring runs like crazy and deGrom has given up five earned runs over his last two starts. I expect the Brewers to score a few runs and for the Mets to stick around, driving this game over the total.
FINAL BREWERS-METS PREDICTION AND PICK: Over 4.5 Runs (-125)