The Dallas Mavericks will take on the Utah Jazz on Christmas Day. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Jazz prediction and pick.

Both of these teams are legitimate playoff squads in the crowded Western Conference, but there's still a clear divide between the two. Dallas currently owns a poor 15-16 record after losing seven of their last eleven games. The Jazz, on the other hand, are once again one of the best teams in the conference. Their 22-9 record is only trailing the Phoenix Suns and the Golden State Warriors, two teams that both have an argument for being the best in the league. This game will be a big test for the Mavs as well as a potential playoff preview, so let's get into the pick.

Here are the Mavericks-Jazz odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

NBA Odds: Mavericks-Jazz Odds

Dallas Mavericks: +12.5 (-105)

Utah Jazz: -12.5 (-115)

Over: 214 (-110)

Under: 214 (-110)

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Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread

The big concern for the Mavericks in this game is the absence of star guard Luka Doncic. Doncic will miss his seventh straight game here due to the NBA's health and safety protocols. His absence will obviously hurt the Mavericks, but they've actually been playing fairly well without him, particularly against the spread. Dallas is 4-2 ATS in the games that Doncic has missed recently, only failing to cover against the Milwaukee Bucks and the Minnesota Timberwolves. It's entirely possible that this spread is too big for a Mavericks team that is playing surprisingly well without their best player.

Despite their fantastic record, the Jazz haven't been particularly good against the spread, especially in matchups like this one. Utah is 8-10 ATS when they play at home, and they have to face a Mavs team that's 8-7 against the spread in road games. This is easily the biggest spread that Dallas has faced all season, so there's reason to believe Utah is getting a little too much credit in this spot.

Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread

While it's true that this spread is big, there's good reason for it. The Jazz have the edge in almost every single statistical category, and that advantage will only be amplified by Doncic's absence. Utah currently leads the league in points per game, and their wildly efficient offense should play well against this Mavs defense that allows their opponents to shoot 35% from three and 52% from two. Overall, this Dallas defense just isn't very good. The Jazz shouldn't have any trouble scoring in this one.

Things don't get any easier for the Mavs when they're on offense. Utah has been one of the league's best defenses, as they only allow 105 points per game. The Jazz also hold their opponents to some of the worst shooting percentages in the league, which should be more than good enough to slow down this questionable Dallas offense. The Mavericks only shoot 44% from the field while averaging 104 points per game, so this is another great matchup for the Jazz.

Final Mavericks-Jazz Prediction and Pick

This is a big spread, but it's hard to have faith in Dallas when they're statistically inferior in every way. Stick with Utah in what should be a blowout victory.

Final Mavericks-Jazz Pick: Utah Jazz: -12.5 (-115)