The Dallas Mavericks will take on the Houston Rockets on Friday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Rockets prediction and pick.
These teams have had vastly different seasons. The Mavericks have turned themselves into one of the better teams in the Western Conference behind another monster season from Luka Doncic. They currently own a 40-26 record and are tied for the fifth seed in the conference. The Rockets haven't had nearly as much success this year. At 17-49, Houston is one of the worst teams in the NBA, with only the Orlando Magic sitting below them in the league-wide standings.
This doesn't figure to be a competitive contest, but it should be interesting nonetheless.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mavericks-Rockets NBA odds:
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Rockets Odds
Dallas Mavericks: -10.5 (-110)
Houston Rockets: +10.5(-110)
Over: 225.5 (-110)
Under: 225.5 (-110)
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Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Dallas is the stronger team in nearly every single statistical category here. Their elite defense should lead the way in a great matchup against a mediocre-at-best Houston offense. The Mavericks only allow 103 points per game, the second-best number in the league. They also hold their opponents to a 52% effective field goal percentage, one of the best numbers in the league. The Rockets aren't completely terrible on offense, but they only shoot 45% from the field while averaging the most turnovers per game in the league. Expect Dallas to dominate on defense.
It's likely that Houston will be missing key players in this matchup. Starting forward Christian Wood, who leads the team in points per game and rebounds per game, is questionable for this game. Starting forward Jae'Sean Tate is too, along with point guard Dennis Schroeder. Unsurprisingly, the Rockets aren't a particularly deep team. If Wood and Tate miss this contest, the Mavericks will probably win by 20 points or more.
Why The Rockets Could Cover The Spread
The Rockets aren't the only team in this matchup dealing with injuries.
Starting forward Dorian Finney-Smith, arguably the Mavericks' second-most important player, is questionable for Friday's matchup. So is starting shooting guard Jalen Brunson. Finney-Smith is the Mavericks' best defender, and Brunson is a key part of their offense. Their absences will be felt on both ends of the floor. It doesn't help that Dallas relies on a couple of guys as backups across multiple positions. Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans are likely to see huge minutes in this game. That should make things much easier for a Rockets team that needs any break they can get.
While the Rockets haven't been good anywhere, they've been slightly better when they play on their home floor. Their winning percentage jumps from 20% on the road to 32% on their home floor. The Mavericks have also been significantly worse on the road, earning a 17-14 record away from home compared to a 23-12 record on their own court. Home-court advantage should help give the Rockets some chance of covering here.
Final Mavericks-Rockets Prediction & Pick
This is a pretty simple pick. The Rockets have been terrible in pretty much every facet of the game, and they're dealing with injuries to key players. Even considering the injuries the Mavericks are dealing with, they should blow Houston out of the water.
Final Mavericks-Rockets Pick: Dallas Mavericks: -10.5 (-110)
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