The Milwaukee Bucks play their sixth straight home game tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Pelicans-Bucks prediction and pick.

The Bucks hold an overall record of 19-13, but they are 16-16 against the spread. Milwaukee is coming off a blowout win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Pelicans stand at 14-17 overall, and they are 13-18 against the spread. New Orleans is coming off a win over the Detroit Pistons last night.

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Pelicans-Bucks odds.

NBA Odds: Pelicans-Bucks Odds

Milwaukee Bucks -9 (-113)

New Orleans Pelicans +9 (-107)

Over 242.5 Points (-110)

Under 242.5 Points (-110)

Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread

The Bucks will more than likely be without Jrue Holiday for the tenth straight game tonight, who is listed as doubtful on the injury report.

Without Holiday in the lineup, Milwaukee has looked like a different team. They have gone 4-5 over the stretch, and their perimeter defense has been disappointing.

After starting the year in the top percentile in perimeter defense, the Bucks now allow opponents to shoot the sixth-best percentage from deep and allowed the fourth-most three-point attempts and makes.

The playbook on how to hang with the Bucks right now has been laid out: It's tough to beat them on the interior, so launch as many threes as possible.  In their games without Jrue Holiday, the team that makes the most three-pointers is 6-3.

We've seen this strategy of three-point chucking employed in Milwaukee's most recent matchups.

The Timberwolves average 36.4 three-point attempts per game. They shot 54 against the Bucks. In their last nine matchups, teams shot more three-pointers than average in six of them.

While the Pels aren't knock-down shooters, a game with plenty of possessions and shots suits them. They don't play much defense, but if this score enters the 120 point range, the Pelicans can hang in it.

Look for New Orleans to launch from the perimeter tonight and hope their perimeter players can hit enough threes to make this a game.

Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread

After a terrible five-game losing streak, the Bucks look to be back on track.

Milwaukee has played three subpar teams since (Thunder, Kings, and Timberwolves) and taken care of business against each one, winning by double digits in all three.

The Bucks' success has come courtesy of one defensive masterclass against OKC, and two offensive outbursts. Milwaukee should focus on repeating the former tonight.

In their last matchup, the Bucks allowed far too many good looks from deep to start the game and let the Pelicans shooters find their rhythm. New Orleans ended with 21 three-pointers on 44% shooting.

While this was an anomaly (The Pels average 11.8 three-pointers on 36% shooting) the Bucks simply cannot afford to let New Orleans run rampant on the perimeter today.

If Milwaukee can play even a shade of defense around the arc tonight, the Pelicans' numbers will come down to earth.

On the offensive end, the Bucks should run up the numbers with ease.

The total has gone over in 18 of New Orlean's last 19 matchups, mostly because the Pels play little to no defense.

New Orleans allows the sixth most points in the league and opponents are shooting nearly 40% from deep against them.

Khris Middleton shot 1-6 from three in their last meeting and missed several clean looks.  Giannis launched seven threes and only made two. Middleton should connect at a better rate tonight, and I'd be surprised to see the reigning MVP shoot that many treys tonight.

If this turns into a shootout (statistically, it's very likely too) the Bucks should have the upper hand.

Final Pelicans-Bucks Prediction & Pick

The last time these two met, the Pelicans shocked the Bucks with an upset as seven-point underdogs. It took career shooting efforts from Eric Bledsoe (7 3PM, tied career-high), and Lonzo Ball (7 3PM, career-high) to pull it off. Both shot over 50% from deep. The odds that this happens again are very low, but I think the Pels should have enough shooting power to at least make this a game. I'll take the Bucks to win, but the Pels to keep it close and cover.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: MIL 127, NOP 122 (NOP +9)