The Miami Heat will attempt to level the first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks as the teams play Game 2 on Monday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Heat-Bucks prediction and pick.
The Heat enter this game after a heartbreaking loss in Game 1, even after fighting their way to overtime. Despite the loss, they covered the 5.5-point spread in the first game.
The Bucks should consider themselves lucky after holding home-court advantage thanks to a Khris Middleton game-winner, and they should be motivated to put even more pressure on Miami.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Heat-Bucks odds.
NBA Odds: Heat-Bucks Odds
Miami Heat +4.5 (-107)
Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-113)
Over 222.5 Points (-112)
Under 222.5 Points (-108)
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
The silver lining for the Heat after losing Game 1 is that this team is clearly still capable of playing Milwaukee to a standstill.
The Bucks escaped with only a two-point victory thanks to a huge shot from Middleton, but a look at the box score in this one makes it seem like it could have been a Bucks blowout.
Jimmy Butler shot only 4-22 from the field, the second lowest percentage in a total of 54 games this season. Bam Adebayo was nearly a complete non-factor on the offensive end, shooting 4-15 from the field.
When your two best players combine to knock down 8-37 field goals, and it still takes overtime and a game-winner to beat you, this Heat should be extremely confident headed into this matchup.
The reason why Miami was able to keep this game close was stellar defense and 3-point shooting (20 made triples). They held the Bucks to only 43.8% from the field and 5-of-31 from 3, some of the lowest figures for Milwaukee this season.
Butler and company have been locking down opponents all season, and they have experience slowing down the Bucks, though this version is a little different. The Heat have enough bodies to throw at Giannis Antetokounmpo to keep him from getting to comfortable on the court, and both Adebayo and Butler are capable of switching to guard Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday, the Bucks' three biggest threats.
This Miami defense doesn't have any quit in them. They just need a little more scoring punch from their main guys, and this series should be even.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
While credit is due to Miami's tenacious defense, Milwaukee also missed shots that Bucks fans are used to seeing go down.
All of Milwaukee's Big Three played well in Game 1, but none of them had iconic performances. Of the three, Jrue Holiday was the only one to shoot 50% from the field. On the flip side, Holiday failed to connect from 3 and went 0-5 from distance.
The focus for the Bucks in Game 2 is to get their shooters back on track. As good as Miami's defense has been, they haven't been excellent at guarding the perimeter and have occasionally been shot out of games by good shooting squads. The Heat held opponents to 36.5% from deep, only 15th in the NBA.
Milwaukee has been one of the hottest shooting teams from 3-point range all year. They finished the regular season shooting 38.9% from 3, the fifth-highest percentage in the league.
The Bucks have six rotation players who shot above 37% from 3 on at least two attempts per game in the regular season. The Bucks have too many good shooters to be held down for too long, especially against a Miami defense that has been hot and cold on the perimeter.
Expect Milwaukee to greatly increase that 3-point percentage in Game 2 If they get to around 35-37%, it's hard to see a Miami team that has struggled to score keeping up with them.
Final Heat-Bucks Prediction & Pick
Game 1 showed that Miami is still one of the best defensive teams in the league, and in the postseason, defense wins games. With one of the toughest and scrappiest guys in the league in Jimmy Butler as the leader, the Heat aren't going to lay down and die in any game this series. In a game that I expect to be close yet again, 4.5 points could make a big difference. I think Butler ups his offensive game, and at the very least, Miami makes this another thriller. Give me the Heat with the points.
FINAL HEAT-BUCKS PREDICTION AND PICK: MIL 111, MIA 110 (MIAMI HEAT +4.5)
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