The Dallas Mavericks will take on the Phoenix Suns in Game 5 of their second-round series on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Suns prediction and pick.
This series may be the most entertaining one of the playoffs so far. The Suns took Games 1 and 2 fairly easily, earning back-to-back wins at home. The Mavericks returned home with their backs against the wall, but it didn't seem to matter. Dallas won two straight behind elite performances from Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson.
Now both teams enter a must-win contest in Game 5. This should be a hotly contested game, so let's cut to the chase and get straight into the pick.
Here are the Mavericks-Suns NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Mavericks-Suns Game 5 Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +6 (-108)
Phoenix Suns: -6 (-112)
Over: 215 (-110)
Under: 215 (-110)
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Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Dallas put on back-to-back elite defensive performances in Games 3 and 4. The Suns failed to surpass 101 points in both losses. Phoenix even shot 46% from three-point range in Game 3, but they were still held to 94 points. The Suns also shot relatively well in Game 4, but were still limited to 101 points. That shows that the Mavericks actually played elite defense, and that it wasn't a couple of lucky matchups. It's easy to see Dallas' defensive dominance continuing on Tuesday, as there's no reason to think it won't.
It's clear the Suns don't have an answer for Doncic just yet. The superstar playmaker has been absolutely insane throughout the first four games of this series, dropping 26 points or more in every single contest so far, including a 45-point showing in Game 1. Stopping Doncic is the key to stopping the Mavericks, and Phoenix just doesn't look capable of defending him. They've tried a variety of matchups and looks, but nothing has worked so far. Expect Doncic to continue his elite play in Game 5.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
The Dallas offense should cool off on Tuesday. The Mavericks shot insanely well from the field in Game 4, particularly from beyond the arc. They hit a total of 20 threes on 45% shooting, a ridiculously high number that is almost certainly unsustainable. Despite that proficiency, the Mavericks only managed to win by 10 points. Dallas will inevitably cool down, and that should lead to a much better game for the Suns on the defensive end of the floor.
Home-court advantage has proven itself to be a huge factor in nearly every playoff series. This one is of course no different. The home team has won every single game this series by a somewhat wide margin. Both of these teams were much better when they played at home during the regular season, so it isn't all that surprising the trend has continued here. The Suns should be able to defend their home court once again in this one.
Final Mavericks-Suns Game 5 Prediction & Pick
While the Suns do have home court, the spread is a little too large to pick them. Phoenix should be favored by three or four, so picking the Mavericks to cover a six-point spread is a no-brainer. Lock in Dallas and don't look back here.
Final Mavericks-Suns Game 5 Prediction & Pick: Dallas Mavericks: +6 (-108)
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