Hubert Davis and the North Carolina Tar Heels will take on John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a North Carolina-Kentucky prediction and pick.

After a disappointing season, North Carolina is back in the top ten where they belong. Longtime Tar Heels RJ Davis and Armando Bacot lead the charge as one of the best duos in the nation. In addition, Hubert Davis hit the transfer portal and brought in loads of talent. Most significantly, Stanford’s versatile 6-7 wing, Harrison Ingram. Reclass freshman Elliot Cadeau has translated quite nicely to the heightened competition, much quicker than I originally predicted. 

Believe it or not, North Carolina is the fourth oldest team in college basketball. As for John Calipari and his Wildcats, the young freshman have stolen the show. Newcomers Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, DJ Wagner, Justin Edwards, and now Aaron Bradshaw have Kentucky oozing with raw talent. Both teams rank top fifty in adjusted tempo — prepare yourself for a track meet.  

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: North Carolina-Kentucky Odds

North Carolina: -1.5 (+100), (ML -111)

Kentucky: +1.5 (-122), (ML -108)

Over: 164.5 (-110)

Under: 164.5 (-110)

How to Watch North Carolina vs. Kentucky 

Time: 5:30 pm ET/ 2:30 pm PT

TV: CBS

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why North Carolina Will Cover The Spread

When you have RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, you will never be out of a game. Truly one of the best duos any team has to offer. Bacot, a rebounding menace ranking 3rd nationally in defensive rebound rate (31.8%), should have a sizeable physicality edge over Tre Mitchell and Aaron Bradshaw. Speaking of Aaron Bradshaw, the star freshman is playing in only his third career game. No matter who Kentucky throws at Bacot down low, he will have the advantage. 

In terms of point distribution, 37.3% of points the Kentucky defense allows come from three-point range. Unsurprisingly, that ranks 24th most in the country. More clearly, the Wildcats do not give up much from the inside but allow quality looks from the outside in return. Does North Carolina have the shooters to take advantage? Most certainly.

Both RJ Davis and newcomer Harrison Ingram are shooting north of 36% from deep on high volume. The Tar Heels could also see some unexpected production from Notre Dame transfer, Cormac Ryan. Despite shooting only 25.5% from three this year, the veteran boasts a 34.4% career percentage. Kentucky has surrendered double-digit threes multiple times already and with the shooting prowess North Carolina has, we could see another. 

Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread

You may see Kentucky’s youth used as reasoning to side with North Carolina. Hubert Davis wanted an old, veteran-led team and he got it. The Tar Heels are the fourth oldest team in the nation averaging 3.17 years of college experience. When you look at Kentucky’s minutes allocation, the Cats only play two guys over thirty minutes per game. Those two players are West Virginia transfer Tre Mitchell (34.7mpg), and Antonio Reeves (30.9mpg). Tre Mitchell and Antonio Reeves are both 23-year-old fifth-year graduate students. In summary — yes, Kentucky is younger than North Carolina overall, but they will have two of the oldest players in college on the court for basically the entire game. 

Secondly, let us look at where North Carolina scores most of their points. In terms of point distribution, the Tar Heels score just 27% of their points from three (238th). From inside the arc, just 48% (250th). But from the free throw line, a wild 24.9% (17th). North Carolina lives at the free throw line, attempting 28.0 free throws per game on average. 

If you break down North Carolina’s free throws attempted per game at home as opposed to away, the numbers are undeniable. At home, the Tar Heels average 28.2 free throws attempted per game. Contrarily, when away from home they average only 22.5 per game. I predict the free throw discrepancy to be closer than the numbers might suggest.

Lastly, these Wildcats can really shoot it from outside. As a team, Kentucky is shooting 41.4% which ranks 3rd in the nation. That is not the only stat they rank 3rd in the nation in — also a turnover rate of only 11.9%. Facing a North Carolina defense that ranks 236th in forced turnover rate, I predict Kentucky to be comfortable on the offensive end all forty minutes.

Final North Carolina-Kentucky Prediction & Pick

Important to remember that this game is being played at a true neutral site — State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. Remember North Carolina’s free throw attempt discrepancy away from home? That applies here. Both offenses have firepower and both defenses have holes. On a neutral floor, I will lean towards the team does not have to rely on the free throw line for 25% of their points. Give me John Calipari and Kentucky to win outright.

Final North Carolina-Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Kentucky ML (-108)